NFL: Will the Packers Fire Matt LaFleur?

• After another loss in the NFL playoffs, will the Green Bay Packers fire Matt LaFleur?
• Despite LaFleur’s 76-40-1 regular season record in 7 years, he has a playoff record of 3-6
• Green Bay was expected to be a Super Bowl team, but finished 9-7-1
• In the Wild Card, they blew an 11-point lead to the Bears with 6:36 remaining in regulation
• Could they make a change? And who might replace him?

Green Bay’s Championship Drought is Getting Long

Titletown is dealing with its annual disappointment. Their championship drought has now reached 15 years. Normally, that would be chalked up to NFL parity, multiple tiers of playoff games, injuries, and other unpredictable factors.

However, during that time, the Packers had one of the top 5 quarterbacks in history, Aaron Rodgers, in the fold. And repeatedly, they lost in both creative and unimaginable ways. They went 15-1 in 2011, only to get bounced by the Wild Card Giants, due in part to an untimely Rodgers interception, and a Hail Mary by Eli Manning to end the first half.

In the 2014 NFC Championship Game in Seattle, they led the Seahawks 19-7 with just under 11 minutes remaining. Seattle outscored them 15-3 for the remainder of regulation before winning in overtime. Rodgers played poorly with a 55.8 passer rating and 2 picks.

After LaFleur replaced Mike McCarthy as full-time head coach, the Packers reached the 2019 NFL Championship Game in San Francisco against the 49ers. The ‘Niners blew them out 37-20. Again, Rodgers came up short, throwing 2 picks. The Packers’ defense could not stop San Francisco’s ground game as Raheem Mostert ran for 220 yards.

In 2022, Rodgers’ last season in Green Bay, the Packers were 8-9 and missed the playoffs for the only time in LaFleur’s tenure. The team transitioned to Jordan Love and has made the playoffs in all three seasons with him as the starting QB.

Still, in the third season of the LaFleur-Love combo, the Packers traded for star defensive end Micah Parsons. They put together a roster that was a media darling and raised fan expectations to the degree where nothing short of a Super Bowl would be deemed acceptable.

As a caveat, they lost Parsons to a torn ACL in Week 15’s loss to the Broncos.

Regardless, the Packers entered that game at 9-3-1.

They didn’t win a game for the rest of the season.

Parsons is important. But he’s not that important. And if he were that important, that’s a big problem with the remainder of the roster, the coaching staff, and the front office.

A Devastating Wild Card Loss

Losing in the playoffs is bad.

Losing a game in which a team had a 21-3 lead at the half, and a 27-16 lead with 6:36 remaining in regulation, is worse.

And losing to perhaps your most hated rivals in the league is excruciating. But that’s what happened against the Bears.

In Chicago, Love was tremendous, completing 24 of 46 passes for 323 yards and 4 TDs. The loss came down to the kicking game with veteran Brandon McManus missing an extra point and two field goals, and the defense being unable to stop Bears QB Caleb Williams when it had multiple opportunities to do so, particularly on a 4th and 8 conversion that, had the Packers stopped it, would almost certainly have ended the game.

If this were a one-off, then fine. But it’s every year under LaFleur that they lose in the postseason, and there are myriad excuses as to why. The Packers must ask themselves if they might have gotten different postseason results under another coach. Would those potential playoff results supersede the regular season results that got them into this position to start with?

Short-Term Satisfaction vs Long-Term Self-Destruction

It is important to note that LaFleur has another year on his contract. Technically, the Packers are under no obligation to do anything. The status quo is fine. Any idea that a coach cannot go into a season as a “lame duck” is silly on its face.

Why shouldn’t he work on an expiring contract?

Who came up with this rule that a coach needs at least two years to be effective?

Like the players who are earning 2X, 3X, 4X, and sometimes 10X what the coach is making are automatically going to listen to him if he has an extra year on his deal?

The team reportedly wants to negotiate an extension with the coach.

Of course, these things can always go sideways, and the team might be using the leak as a “we tried” mechanism before firing him.

If LaFleur became a free agent, he’d get another head coaching job immediately, probably on a 5-year deal with say-so in personnel. So he has some motivation to leave as well.

The Dolphins recently hired former Packers V.P. of personnel Jon-Eric Sullivan as their new GM, so on the surface, that’s an obvious landing spot for LaFleur if he’s free.

Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafly is getting head coaching buzz elsewhere, but the current cycle with huge names is an impediment. He has experience as the head man at Boston College for four years. And of course, there are the recognizable names floating around with John Harbaugh and Kevin Stefanski, among others.

There is an argument to make a change. But given the number of head coaches who fail in their first shot running an NFL team, elevating Hafley could blow up in their faces. So too could making a lateral (or worse) move with Stefanski.

Unless the Packers replace LaFleur with a known entity who’s gotten over the hump, it’s probably easier and better to just keep him.

In the current landscape with the spate of firings, this could go either way.

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