NFL: Analyzing the Micah Parsons Trade Destination Odds

• Dallas Cowboys’ linebacker Micah Parsons’ trade destination odds are garnering significant attention, as he has asked to be dealt
• The escalating contract dispute between the Cowboys and Parsons has shaken the NFL landscape
• Dallas’ entire season could be undone unless Jerry Jones and Parsons find common ground
• Parsons is essentially irreplaceable, and a protracted dispute will impact both sides

Parsons’ Trade Destination Odds

While it remains extremely unlikely that the Cowboys will acquiesce to Parsons’ trade request, there are odds in place as to his next team, should he be moved.

Fundamental Factors in a Hypothetical Parsons Trade

For the moment, ignore the reality that Jerry and Stephen Jones are not going to trade Parsons.

There are odds available because there is the remotest possibility that the relationship between organization and player deteriorated further to the point where they have no choice but to trade him. Though it’s not going to happen, it’s theoretically possible in the aliens land on Earth tomorrow sort of way.

From the outset, eliminate the entire NFC East. In fact, the whole conference is probably off the table. Then there are the teams for which it simply would not make any sense. Sure, every team can use a 4X Pro Bowl, 2X All-Pro pass rusher whose athleticism gives his defensive coordinator the freedom to use him as an ultimate weapon, but that doesn’t mean it makes sense to pull the trigger now.

For example, the Raiders have the best odds to acquire him, but they’re not close to contention. Is it worth it for them?

The Cowboys would not be out of line to ask for three #1’s, plus later-round draft picks, and a few players from the trading team’s roster.

The Above Rules Are Sometimes Broken

Those unassailable truths are universal…usually.

That doesn’t mean intra-conference trades of star talents have never happened. In 1992, the 49ers traded linebacker/defensive end Charles Haley to the Cowboys in training camp for conditional draft picks. Haley was disgruntled, constantly fought with teammates (and lost badly to Jim Burt and Tim Harris), and appeared to be on the decline.

At the time of the trade, the 49ers were still in their dynasty phase and did not see the young Cowboys as a threat to their NFC supremacy. Washington was the defending Super Bowl champion, and the Eagles and Saints had top-tier rosters. Haley was just as likely to cause an implosion as he was to help the Cowboys take the next step toward legitimate contenders.

But he did help them take that next step and beat the 49ers on their way to that first Super Bowl under Jones and Jimmy Johnson and then two more, one under Johnson and one under Barry Switzer.

Which Teams Might Trade for Parsons?

AFC teams with legitimate Super Bowl hopes, like the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills, would heavily pursue Parsons. Other teams on the outskirts include the Broncos, Chargers, and Texans.

Naturally, there could be surprise teams who are not contenders, but have activist owners who like to collect stars to impress their friends. Namely, Jets owner Woody Johnson is undoubtedly salivating at the possibility of acquiring Parsons. The Panthers’ David Tepper is also a meddler.

Micah Parsons Trade Destination Pick

Of the likeliest Super Bowl representatives from the AFC, the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills know that the others will be going after Parsons if the Cowboys begin taking serious inquiries and show a real willingness to trade him.

Dallas could create a bidding war between multiple teams and maximize the return to maybe make it worthwhile to trade Parsons. They probably won’t, but if they do, the team to bet on is the Ravens.