NFL 2025: Player Performance Best Bets Over/Under – NFC North

• For NFL 2025, our NFC North player over-under performance picks are today’s focus
• Let’s look at Jared Goff, Josh Jacobs, and others from the rough, cold-weather division
• The players to watch are the Lions’ Jared Goff, the Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy, the Packers’ Josh Jacobs, and the Bears’ Caleb Williams

Detroit Lions

Jared Goff has been in the NFL for nine years. In those nine years, he has fallen below his projected over-under passing yards of 3,900.5 twice. The first was as a rookie with the Rams when he started seven games, lost them all, threw 5 TDs, 7 picks, and compiled 1,089 yards passing. The other was in 2021 in his first year with the Lions, when he threw for 3,245 yards in 14 starts.

The nucleus of the offense returns, so Goff will have primarily the same weapons he’s had in the past several years when the Lions rose to become a league power and Super Bowl contender. The big change is the departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who left to take over as Bears head coach.

Veteran assistant John Morton takes over as the Lions’ OC. He worked with Goff in 2022 as a senior offensive assistant.

Would Johnson’s departure account for a drop from the 4,629 yards passing Goff amassed in 2024 to under 3,900.5? That’s hard to envision, even if the Lions’ window for a championship is starting to close.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are committed to J.J. McCarthy.

After he missed his entire rookie season after knee surgery, Sam Darnold had a Pro Bowl season, led the club to a 14-3 record, and there was speculation that the team might choose to stick with Darnold for at least one more year with a franchise tag.

Instead, they allowed Darnold to leave for the Seahawks and expressed their support of McCarthy. Head coach Kevin O’Connell is a respected nurturer of quarterbacks, so he deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Still, the Vikings have made sure they have a capable backup by trading away prospective number 2 Sam Howell and signing veteran Carson Wentz.

The question with McCarthy centers on the complete unknown as to how he’ll adapt to the NFL. He had a year to work with the coaches, learn the offense, and do so without the pressure of needing to perform. Despite that, for all intents and purposes, he’s a first-year player. He could struggle.

Darnold threw for 4,319 yards in 2024. McCarthy’s over-under is well below that at 3,600.5.

Even with these facts, it comes down to whether McCarthy will hit the ground running once the season starts. The guess here is that he’ll have his ups and downs and will not surpass 3,600.5 yards.

Green Bay Packers

Jacobs rushed for 1,329 yards in 2024, his first season as a Packer. It was his second-highest total in his career, with only his 2022 season with the Raiders surpassing it. That year, he ran for 1,653 yards.

His over-under for 2025 seems exceedingly low. The Packers’ offensive line is shaky at times, but they have a generally strong offense, and quarterback Jordan Love is on the cusp of stardom. Backup running back A.J. Dillon left as a free agent. Emanuel Wilson is a capable backup, but Jacobs is the key to their rushing attack.

The only way Jacobs does not go beyond 1,075.5 yards is if he gets hurt.

Chicago Bears

For all the talk of Caleb Williams being an immature bust who cannot handle pressure, his 2024 numbers would have been relatively respectable if he were a rank-and-file rookie and not viewed as a QB prodigy nicknamed “Superman.”

In 2024, he threw 20 TD passes against 6 interceptions. He compiled 3,541 yards passing and ran for another 489. He was sacked 68 times for 466 yards, leading the league in both. A passer rating of 87.8 is fine for a rookie on a 5-12 team.

Now, he has an offensive innovator running the team with head coach Ben Johnson and sufficient weapons to prove he was worth the hype.

The number of sacks he endured and the limited number of picks he threw indicate that he would rather take the sack than throw a risky pass. Under Johnson, Goff was good for 12 or so interceptions a year.

Will Williams play a more freewheeling game in the new offense and risk a few more interceptions? Or will his vaunted accuracy prevent it?

The odds favor him going over 9.5 interceptions, but his talent should win out, and he’ll keep the total below that number.

2025 NFC North Player Over-Under Odds and Picks

The above-listed NFC North player over-under odds assess some of the bigger names in the league. All are confronted with a changed landscape they will be forced to navigate. Do you agree with our picks? Why or why not?

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