NFL 2025: Player Performance Best Bets Over/Under – AFC West

• Our NFL 2025 projections continue with the AFC West player over-under individual performance picks
• This is arguably the toughest division in the league with one perennial Super Bowl contender (the Chiefs), two up-and-comers (the Chargers and Broncos), and one team that finally has competent head coaching (the Raiders)
• Our player performance over-unders look at stars and under-the-radar performers who may provide solid value

Kansas City Chiefs

Kelce will be 36 in October. His off-field fame and activities with his girlfriend, Taylor Swift, have made him a household name for people who wouldn’t know the difference between a football and a cantaloupe.

The predictions that his off-field pursuits would become a distraction never materialized.

However, age and the looming sunset for a Hall of Fame career are undeniable. He continues to play at an insanely high level and would undoubtedly love to go out as a champion.

The question with Kelce’s reception total being above or below 74.5 hinges on whether the team limits his snaps for the long-term and so he’s healthy and fresh for when the Chiefs’ season really starts in January.

The Chiefs are relying more on fellow tight end Noah Gray. Still, Kelce caught 97 balls in 2024. He has not caught fewer than 83 since 2015. If he’s healthy, then he will blow past 74.5 catches in the regular season.

Los Angeles Chargers

As a rookie, McConkey caught 82 balls for 1,149 yards. Then, in the Chargers’ playoff loss to the Texans, he caught another 9 for 197 yards.

Oddsmakers are expecting him to fall back slightly. Part of that is due to the Chargers beefing up their receiving corps by drafting Tre Harris in the 2nd round and KeAndre Lambert-Smith in the 5th round of the 2025 NFL Draft. They also brought back longtime Charger Keenan Allen. Their running game should be improved with 1st rounder Omarion Hampton.

So, will McConkey be quarterback Justin Herbert’s security blanket? Or will he be a key part of the offense while not being used as their primary threat?

Head coach Jim Harbaugh likes a run-oriented, high-percentage passing game with occasional deep shots. At times, it looked as if he was bashing a square peg (Herbert) into a round hole because Herbert likes to show off his arm and push the ball vertically.

The Chargers will follow Harbaugh’s preference and spread the ball around, leading to McConkey falling below 1050.5 yards receiving.

Denver Broncos

Tight end Evan Engram joins the Broncos and Sean Payton after three dysfunctional years with the Jaguars. Engram has always had talent. The Giants did select him in the 1st round of the 2017 NFL Draft. He’s been saddled with bad teams, scatterarmed quarterbacks, and injuries all over his body.

He will be 31 when the season gets underway. Payton and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi’s offense makes extensive use of the tight end if they have one they can trust. Engram is generally trustworthy to catch the ball, but his injuries are a concern. And he’s not getting younger.

It can’t be ignored that he has only surpassed 70.5 receptions twice in his career. In 2023, he caught 114 balls for the Jaguars.

While the Broncos are a more stable situation than any Engram has been in during his career, his injury history and tendency to drop balls will keep him below 70.5 catches.

Las Vegas Raiders

The 6’4″, 235-pound Bowers is the next generation in great Raiders tight ends, following in the footsteps of Dave Casper and Todd Christensen. As a rookie, he was one of the Raiders’ few bright spots with 112 catches for 1,194 yards. He was a first-team All-Pro and made the Pro Bowl.

He did this with inconsistent and mediocre quarterback play from Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O’Connell. For 2025, he will have a veteran coach in Pete Carroll and a veteran QB in Geno Smith. Bowers is a key to the offense and will easily go beyond 98.5 catches.

2025 NFL Player Performance AFC West Over-Under Best Bets

The AFC West could have three playoff teams and a dramatically improved Raiders club. The above-listed players could all be integral parts of them reaching their season objectives.

Who do you like for player performance over-under in the AFC West?

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