NFL 2025: Parsons Trade Moves Over/Under Wins for Packers, Cowboys

• The Micah Parsons trade dramatically changed the Packers’ and Cowboys’ over-under win total odds
• NFL 2025 oddsmakers did not feel the Cowboys would contend, and their prospects have just gotten worse
• The Packers were a projected playoff team, but now their win total odds are identical to those of the Lions and 49ers, but still behind the Eagles

Cowboys Expected to Finish Well Below .500

On July 17th, when we posted our 2025 Cowboys over-under win total, we labeled Parsons the most important player on their defense and predicted that the player and the team would get beyond the public posturing and agree on a long-term contract.

Obviously, we were wrong.

Their over-under was the same as it is now at 7.5. But the odds then were -140. They are now +115. This is how important Parsons was to the team prospects.

The Cowboys have essentially acknowledged that they are not a Super Bowl team, nor are they even a serious playoff contender. Sure, they could make the playoffs with a 9-8 record, but what happens then with a likely road Wild Card game?

With the Packers’ two first-round picks in 2026-27, Dallas is looking toward the future. On the field, they still have a team that can compete. They have ballhawks in the secondary and an improved interior line with the addition of Kenny Clark. On offense, Dak Prescott is returning from a serious injury, and they have firepower. They will be in most games and win a few as underdogs, but winning 8 games is now viewed as an overachievement.

The likeliest outcome is 7-10.

The Packers Vault to the Same Plateau as the Top NFC Teams

On July 5th, the Packers’ over-under for wins was 9.5. We predicted they would win at least 10 games. Before the Parsons trade, they were categorized as a good team that would probably make the playoffs. After Parsons, they jumped to the same win total as the Lions and 49ers, albeit with worse odds. They remain behind the NFC favorites, the Eagles, who are at 11.5 over-under wins.

Is this an overreach and an afterglow response to the Packers getting a legitimate star player and difference-maker?

The 2024 Packers went 11-7, counting playoffs. They lost to the Eagles twice, the Vikings twice, the Lions twice, and the meaningless final game of the season against the Bears. They had trouble stopping the run and turned the ball over too frequently. Parsons does not help much with that despite his game-wrecking abilities as a versatile pass-rusher.

The Lions have new coordinators, the Eagles are again the favorites, the Vikings are playing a rookie QB, and the 49ers are banking on good health reversing their 2024 disaster.

Their schedule is of moderate difficulty.

The immediate sense is that they will be a bigger threat than they were, but are still about a 10-win team.

The Parsons Trade Shakes Up Cowboys’ and Packers’ Over-Under for Wins

Rarely does one player have such a drastic impact on an entire season. But that is exactly what the Parsons trade had done to the Cowboys’ and Packers’ over-under win totals.

So where do you stand on these new odds, and what will happen in Green Bay and Dallas?

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