NFL 2025: Miami Dolphins Over/Under For Wins

• For the 2025 NFL season, oddsmakers have the Miami Dolphins’ over-under wins at 8.5, heavily favoring the under
• Miami rallied from a 2-6 start to finish at 8-9 and nearly made the playoffs
• Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion problems cost him a chunk of the season, but when he played, he played well
• In the offseason, the Dolphins boosted the offensive line, traded away star cornerback Jalen Ramsey for Minkah Fitzpatrick, and coaxed tight end Darren Waller out of retirement
• Another disappointing season could activate owner Stephen Ross’ itchy trigger finger, putting GM Chris Grier and head coach Mike McDaniel in jeopardy

The Dolphins’ Season Hinges on Tua’s Head

When QB Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, he is one of the most accurate passers in the league. Head coach Mike McDaniel and offensive coordinator Frank Smith run a diverse, quick-strike, rapid-fire scheme that takes advantage of the speedy receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, back De’Von Achane, and Tua’s quick release.

Unfortunately, Tua was limited to 11 games because of the recurrence of his concussion issues that had shelved him in the past.

The media and fans all but demanded he retire, ignoring the reality that none of them have even the slightest right to tell a grown man what he should or should not do with his body and his career.

Still, the frequency of his concussions, their severity, and the lowered threshold for when a head hit becomes concussive are worrisome for the player and the team on and off the gridiron. In 2024, the Dolphins did not have a trustworthy veteran backup on the roster. It was an egregious misstep given Tua’s history. They cycled through Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson, and Tim Boyle, none of whom could take the reins for the duration with Tua out.

For 2025, knowing that this could be a problem, they again failed to acquire a serviceable veteran backup.

Their current roster has the following QBs, along with Tua:

• Former Jets number 2 overall pick Zach Wilson, now on his third organization in three years
• Seventh round draft pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, Quinn Evers, whose alias during his final year at the University of Texas could have been, “Why isn’t Arch Manning playing?”
• Undrafted free agent Brett Gabbert (NFL journeyman Blaine Gabbert’s younger brother)

It’s unlikely that any or all can take over and keep the Dolphins afloat.

An Offseason of Sly or Risky Moves

The Dolphins made a bold and surprising move when they traded star cornerback Jalen Ramsey and tight end Jonnu Smith to the Steelers for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Digging beneath the surface and it makes sense. Ramsey wanted out of Miami. Smith made the Pro Bowl last season, but they essentially exchanged him for Darren Waller when they acquired Waller’s rights from the Giants.

To boost the offensive line, they signed veteran James Daniels, another former Steeler, to a three-year deal. In the second round of the draft, they took Jonah Savaiinaea, an offensive lineman, out of Arizona.

They took defensive tackle Kenneth Grant from Michigan in the first round, defensive lineman Jordan Phillips out of Maryland in the fifth round, and cornerback Jason Marshall from Florida with their second of three fifth-rounders. The third fifth rounder was spent on safety Dante Trader from Maryland.

Could Grier/McDaniel Be In Trouble With Another Disappointing Year?

The Tua injury excuse can only go so far before demanding owner Stephen Ross asks why they didn’t have a better backup.

Looking at Ross’ history as owner since taking over in 2009 and he’s gone through Tony Sparano (whom he inherited), Joe Philbin, Adam Gase, Brian Flores, and now McDaniel. Three years has pretty much been his limit. And that doesn’t count the two interim head coaches who, objectively, he might have been better off giving the full-time job: Todd Bowles and Dan Campbell.

It would behoove Grier and McDaniel to do everything possible to keep Tua on the field, make the playoffs, and advance at least to the Divisional Round.

Their Schedule Is of Moderate Difficulty

As part of the AFC East, the Dolphins play the Bills, Jets, and Patriots twice each. They travel to play the Colts, Panthers, Browns, Falcons, and Steelers. They host the Chargers, Ravens, Commanders, Saints, Bengals, and Buccaneers.

Dolphins Over/Under For Wins

Oddsmakers see it as a long shot for the Dolphins to win more games than they did in 2024. The obvious question is about Tua and if he can stay healthy. They are again entering the season without a proven backup, which was a mistake in 2024 and would be a mistake again in 2025.

The defense should again be good enough to keep them competitive. In their division, the Jets and Patriots will probably not be as bad as they were in 2024. It will be difficult for Miami to challenge the Bills for first place.

It’s a leap of faith, but picking the Dolphins to win more than 8.5 games could be lucrative, and it’s not as if it’s completely absurd to think they can do it…if Tua is healthy for the full season.