Last updated Jul 7, 10:55am ET

  • The Washington Nationals chose to fire GM Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez a week before the MLB Draft
  • The Nats have the first pick in the upcoming draft
  • They are 37-53 and in last place in the NL East
  • This is their sixth straight losing season after winning the 2019 World Series
Nationals Over WinsNationals Under Wins
68.5 Wins (-115)68.5 Wins (-115)

The Timing Is Unusual, but Largely Irrelevant

There were over-the-top reactions to the Nationals firing GM Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez. Most centered on “why now?” with the MLB Draft set for July 13-14 and the Nats holding the first overall pick.

It’s certainly unusual given the circumstances. Speculation from Mets’ play-by-play broadcaster Howie Rose made some sense after Martinez made ill-advised comments over the weekend, essentially calling out the players and absolving himself and his coaches for the team’s skid.

From ownership’s perspective, if the manager says he and his coaches do not influence the players’ performance, why do they need that manager and his coaches?

No boss in any industry wants to hear, “Don’t blame me!” from the person who’s supposed to be in a supervisory position, no matter the circumstances.

Regarding Rizzo, ownership did not want him and his staff making the crucial first overall pick when they were likely to move on from him after the season. Therefore, it made perfect sense to fire him now.

Assistant GM Mike DeBartolo will be the interim GM and oversee baseball ops. In reality, who knows who’s making the final decision? It could be owner Mark Lerner, someone who’s gotten in Lerner’s ear, DeBartolo, or someone else.

In the grand scheme, it doesn’t make much difference since there will presumably be a wide search for a full-time replacement. Picking first overall, they will get a good player even if they have a President’s Race to determine who they’re going to take among the five or so most hyped amateur prospects.

There Was Inertia in D.C.

Was Rizzo’s success a byproduct of the good fortune, or was the Nats’ rise by design? Was it both?

Rizzo replaced a reviled figure in baseball in former Nats GM Jim Bowden, who was known for arrogance and ineptitude more than anything else. The deposed GM was given what amounted to an expansion team being the worst team in baseball in consecutive years, when two generational talents and clear-cut number 1 overall picks were available in Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. He also selected Anthony Rendon sixth overall in 2011.

The rest of his drafts were undeniably mediocre. Even those who made the Majors have been up and down, including Lucas Giolito and Erick Fedde. Others like Dane Dunning, Carter Kieboom, Seth Romero, Brian Goodwin, and Alex Meyer are outright busts.

The latest is Dylan Crews, taken second overall in 2023. While he’s only 23, he’s been horrid with a .206/.275/.354 slash in 305 career MLB plate appearances.

This is the same GM who initiated the Strasburg shutdown in 2012 as the Nats were heading for the playoffs and a possible World Series, potentially costing them a title in an attempt to “protect” that generational arm…who ended up getting hurt anyway!

His team was a persistent disappointment, cycling through five managers, including proven winners Davey Johnson and Dusty Baker, before getting to Martinez, who was nearly fired in 2019 after a 19-31 start before a stunning and unexpected turnaround with the club finally winning that elusive World Series.

Rizzo might be a competent executive who cannot win unless he has the freedom to spend big to cover mistakes. Once the vault was closed, the team was stuck in last place.

Martinez? Meh.

Dave Martinez is an old-school baseball guy who had been caged to keep his job. That means he understood that he needed to follow orders to get a job as manager, was obligated to take short money to do it, and part of his duties were to fall in line. His comments about the players, alluded to above, sound closer to frustration with being blamed for that which he had little to do with than shirking his responsibility as the field boss.

That said, he has had the job for 7.5 years and has had two winning seasons. The first was in 2018, his rookie year as manager, when the team won 15 fewer games than it did the year before under Baker. In 2019, they won the World Series.

Since then, they have not come close to .500. And forget about the playoffs.

Did he “lose” the clubhouse with his comments? The players probably weren’t thrilled about it, but again, what’s the difference?

How Does the Nationals Firing the GM and Manager Impact 2025?

The Nationals’ current over/under for wins is 68.5. At 37-53, surpassing 68 wins requires that they go 32-40.

Is that likely with their current construction? Probably not even if there is a brief spurt under the interim manager, whoever that is.

However, since they’re basically starting over, expect a housecleaning of their marketable talents, contenders can use. That includes Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Bell, Alex Call, Amed Rosario, and Kyle Finnegan. They won’t get much back. But with the decision to wave the white flag completely when they fire the GM and manager, that trickles down, and they will fall well below 68.5 wins.

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Nationals Under 68.5 Wins (-115)
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Paul Lebowitz
Paul Lebowitz

Writer, Columnist

Paul is an experienced sportswriter and novelist from NYC with expertise in sports analysis and betting. His work has appeared on platforms like ESPN and YES Network, delivering engaging and objective insights to a diverse audience.

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