UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez a.k.a. UFC on ESPN 55 is on the program on April 27, but bookmakers have already released the odds for the main event. Matheus Nicolau is the betting favorite, but we don’t think Alex Perez should be underestimated. To see whether a surprise might happen at UFC Apex, keep reading our Nicolau vs. Perez prediction!

Before Betting on Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez UFC on ESPN 55 Fight

Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1) was originally supposed to fight Manel Kape, but he pulled out of the fight due to an injury. Alex Perez (24-8) stepped in as his replacement in the hope of ending his three-fight losing streak.

The bad news for Perez is that UFC on ESPN 55 odds suggest he’s likely to lose on April 27. The main reason for this is that he’s been without a win in almost four years. However, there’s a caveat.

The three fights he lost were against fighters who are much better than his next opponent. In his most recent fight – in March 2024 – he lost by unanimous decision to rising flyweight star Muhammad Mokaev.

Perez got rag-dolled by Mokaev, who managed to land three takedowns in that fight. Before that, Perez lost by submission to Alexandre Pantoja. And before that, he lost to Deiveson Figueiredo by submission in the UFC Flyweight title fight.

Obviously, he doesn’t do great against good wrestlers/grapplers, but is Nicolau good enough to beat him? He does have five wins by submission in his portfolio, but the last time he beat someone by this method was back in 2019.

Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez Offshore Odds & Pick

Offshore SportsbookMatheus NicolauAlex Perez

Just a few years ago, Alex Perez had a chance to become the champion. He might be 0-3 in his last three fights but there’s no doubt that he still has elite fighting skills. And we’re sure he’s going to prove it on April 27 at UFC on ESPN 55.

Pick: Alex Perez