Super Bowl LIX: Will a Threepeat Vault Mahomes Over Brady?

• Patrick Mahomes is going for this third straight Super Bowl and fourth overall
• He is a three-time Super Bowl MVP and will not be 30 until September
• Tom Brady won 7 Super Bowls and is a five-time Super Bowl MVP
• Mahomes has played 8 years; Brady played 23

As Super Bowl LIX approaches, the Kansas City Chiefs are on the verge of NFL immortality as the first team to win three straight Super Bowls. Not even the New England Patriots — the most recent dynasty in the NFL — came close. Historic comparisons will inevitably be made not just about teams, but about players. The most obvious one is Mahomes vs Brady.

The Chiefs are currently 1.5-point favorites to complete the threepeat. Mahomes is +110 to win his fourth Super Bowl MVP.

Let’s compare Mahomes and Brady while acknowledging that it is an early conclusion since Mahomes may have another 10 years of productive play.

The First Eight Years of Brady and Mahomes’ Careers

Neither Brady nor Mahomes started as rookies. Brady was a nobody sixth-round draft pick, trapped behind former first-overall pick Drew Bledsoe who had a $103 million contract. Mahomes was the 10th overall pick sitting behind veteran Alex Smith. He knew he was likely to start in his second year.

Brady won three Super Bowls in his first eight seasons as a pro. He was an All-Pro twice, a four-time Pro Bowler, one-time league MVP, and one-time Offensive Player of the Year. He won the Super Bowl MVP twice. In his eighth season, the Patriots went undefeated through the AFC Championship before losing in the Super Bowl.

Mahomes has won three Super Bowls and lost one. He is a two-time All-Pro, a six-time Pro Bowler, a two-time MVP, and a three-time Super Bowl MVP.

Advantage: Even

The Competition

Apart from the 2001 season — the first Lombardi Trophy for Brady, Bill Belichick, and the Patriots — New England’s overall competition was relatively weak. At best, New England’s AFC East competition was mediocre throughout Brady’s tenure as their QB. At worst, it was non-existent. The Jets are the Jets. The Dolphins were up and down, mostly down. And the Bills were generally bad. That gave New England what amounted to a division title bye every year.

In the postseason, the Pats’ main nemesis was Peyton Manning and the Colts, but they usually won those matchups. The Pats’ and Brady’s Kryptonite was not an AFC team, but the New York Giants in the Super Bowl. They lost to the Giants twice.

In Mahomes’ first two seasons as a starter, Brady was still with the Patriots. New England won the Super Bowl in the first, bouncing KC in the AFC Championship Game in overtime, 37-31 at Arrowhead. Mahomes outplayed Brady completing 16 of 31 passes for 3 touchdowns and a 117 passer rating. Brady was 30 for 46 and 348 yards with 1 TD and 2 interceptions.

On the road to their current position, in addition to the Pats, KC has had to battle the Ravens, Bills, Steelers, and Bengals. It’s a far tougher road than what the Patriots faced.

Advantage: Mahomes

The Patriots’ Background Cast vs the Chiefs’ Background Cast

An understated aspect of the two dynasties is that neither team is particularly star-studded beyond the top-heavy Hall of Famers.

For the Patriots, Randy Moss, Darrelle Revis, Junior Seau, and Richard Seymour are already in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Revis and Seau were only with the team for a short time. Rob Gronkowski will get in. Rodney Harrison has a strong case. Then there’s Belichick. But for the most part, the team was a sum of its parts with Belichick bringing in smart, tough players who, as he put in ad nauseam, understood the concept of “do your job.”

The Chiefs? Travis Kelce and Chris Jones will be Hall of Famers. DeAndre Hopkins has a good shot. And, of course, Andy Reid. Apart from that, it was players who fit in and could perform their functions. They have good players; great players; but not household names.

Advantage: Even

The Intangibles

To put intangibles into clearer perspective, there’s one question to ask: Where would their teams be without them?

Had the Patriots not had Brady, would they have won all those Super Bowls and dominated the NFL for so long?

If the Chiefs did not have Mahomes, where would they be?

The answer to both questions is that neither team would have won all those championships without their star quarterbacks. Brady took down-the-line salaries and endured Belichick’s hard coaching. Mahomes is getting his money, but not at the expense of players the team needs to win.

Could the Patriots have gotten that far with Bledsoe? Had Bledsoe not gotten injured, Belichick would have been Bill Parcells’ defensive coordinator in Dallas by 2004.

The Chiefs? Reid would certainly have kept them competitive, but three Super Bowls and bordering on a fourth within six years and a threepeat? Highly, highly, highly unlikely.

Advantage: Even

Is it Mahomes or Brady?

There are dozens of factors beyond those listed here when trying to come to an accurate conclusion for Mahomes vs Brady. If Mahomes wins Super Bowl LIX, he will have done something Brady did not do and have another decade to add to his resume. However, right now, the competition is relatively even. With Mahomes’ youth and the obstacles each faced on their way to the top, Mahomes is on top by a hair.

He can help his case immensely by winning Super Bowl LIX and the Super Bowl MVP.