Bailey Zappe Era Begins in New England

It’s somewhat surprising that New England (1-3) is over a field goal favorite at the offshore sportsbooks for the Lions Patriots week 5 matchup considering QB Bailey Zappe is making his first NFL start. The Pats’ are down both Mac Jones and backup Brian Hoyer, pushing the 4th round rookie into action vs. Detroit.

Make no mistake, the Lions’ 1-3 record doesn’t warrant them being road favorites by any means. All three of Detroit’s losses have been by 4 points or less though, including last week’s 48-45 home defeat against Seattle. The Lions have to have some real defensive concerns after Seattle shredded them for 235 yards rushing and 320 yards passing last week.

The Patriots didn’t have that good of an offense even with Jones in there (18.5 ppg, 24th in NFL) so what are they going to look like with Zappe? Expect a heavy dose of Damien Harris (246 yards, 3 TDs) on the ground especially with Detroit ranking 30th vs. the run giving up 165.5 ypg on the ground. Seattle’s Rashaad Penny torched the Lions for 151 rush yards last week on just 17 carries.

Despite their porous defense, the Lions can take some solace in the fact that they put up 45 points last week even without top receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) and #1 rusher D’Andre Swift (shoulder). QB Jared Goff still threw for 378 yards and 4TDs even without St. Brown while Jamaal Williams picked up the slack in the running game with 108 yards and 2 TDs.

Offshore SportsbookMoneylineTotalRun Line
BetOnlineLions (+146) | Patriots (-166)46.5Lions +3 (-104) | Patriots -3 (-116)
BovadaLions (+135) | Patriots (-160)46.5Lions +3 (-110) | Patriots -3 (-110)
BetUSLions (+135) | Patriots (-155)46.5Lions +3 (-110) | Patriots -3 (-110)
SportsBetting.agLions (+135) | Patriots (-155)46.5Lions +3 (-110) | Patriots -3 (-110)
PinnacleLions (+137) | Patriots (-152)46Lions +3 (-105) | Patriots -3 (-105)
MyBookieLions (+131) | Patriots (-161)46.5Lions +3 (-110) | Patriots -3 (-110)

Lions Patriots Week 5 Prediction

Despite their 1-3 record, Detroit has shown the tendency to keep games close this season. It’s always tough to go against a Bill Belichick New England defense, but the fact that the Patriots are starting a rookie QB you simply cannot count on them to run away with a win. Lions plus the points looks like the play.