Guardians vs Yankees: ALCS Prediction, Offshore Odds, and Stats (Oct 14)

Our Guardians vs Yankees ALCS prediction is for the Yankees to win in seven games.

Offshore Odds: Yankees Favored to Win Their First Pennant Since 2009

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Head-To-Head: Yankees and Guardians Have Been Regular Playoff Opponents

The Yankees and Guardians have met in the MLB postseason six times since 1997 with the Yankees leading 4-2.

However, Cleveland has been a difficult matchup for the Yankees putting up a fight against their better-financed and more decorated rivals. Contrast this with Cleveland’s division mate the Twins who the Yankees do not just beat in the postseason, but outright abuse rarely losing a game.

New York has won their last three postseason series against Cleveland. In the 2024 regular season, New York won four of the six meetings.

Yankees Have Their Best Chance at a Pennant in 15 Years

The Yankees starting pitching — including ace Gerrit Cole — has been shaky in the playoffs. To make matters worse, the Guardians have shown no fear of Cole in the past. First baseman Josh Naylor has three career home runs against Cole. Suffice it to say, he will be told not to do his “rocking baby” celebration if he again takes Cole deep as he did the last time the teams met in the postseason.

Star third baseman Jose Ramirez is 12 for 34 against Cole with 3 doubles, 2 home runs, and a 1.129 OPS.

Lefty Carlos Rodon has excellent numbers against the Guardians’ core bats.

In 2024, the Yankees’ offense was generally limited to what Aaron Judge and Juan Soto provided. Giancarlo Stanton posted a robust slash line of .375/.444/.688 with one home run and two doubles in the ALDS win over the Royals. In addition, Gleyber Torres contributed a key home run.

The Yankees bullpen was lights out against Kansas City. They are using a new closer in journeyman Luke Weaver. He has had limited exposure to the Guardians, but Ramirez is 2 for 3 against him with a double.

Bear in mind that if the Yankees are to get past Cleveland, they will need their bats beyond Judge and Soto to contribute. Without it or if the Guardians mitigate those two megastars, the Yankees are going to lose.

The Guardians Squeaked by the Tigers — The Yankees Are Not the Tigers

This Cleveland team differs from past clubs that battled the Yankees in that those teams had the star power to compare with New York’s. In 2024, they are more of a “sum of its parts” group that, apart from Ramirez, does not have a roster laden with stars.

They rely on solid fundamentals, excellent defense, speed, and a great bullpen. The Guardians catch everything within reach and beyond. Also, the Yankees will not intimidate them and they will not beat themselves.

After their bruising five-game series win over the upstart Tigers, the Guardians’ pitching is tattered. Though their starting pitchers are only asked to get a certain number of outs and manager Stephen Vogt pulls them sooner rather than later, they could fall into a hole quickly.

The Yankees, particularly Judge, have battered Cleveland’s Game 1 starter Alex Cobb. New York’s towering captain has a .636 career batting average against Cobb. Furthermore, Soto has two career home runs against him as does Torres.

Prediction: The Yankees Will Outlast the Guardians

Despite the global perception of the Yankees as an unstoppable juggernaut because of their storied history, the reality is that they have not won a World Series — or even been to one — since their last championship in 2009.

Although they came close several times, they repeatedly ran into the Astros and were beaten, sometimes embarrassingly so. Now their nemesis from Houston was dispatched in the ALDS. Cleveland is a far more appetizing matchup.

The Guardians will put up a fight, but they do not have the depth to stay with the Yankees and win the series, particularly if Stanton is hitting. Although Cole and Rodon are question marks in the playoffs, the Yankees bullpen and bats should cover for them and outlast the Guardians in a long, hard-fought series.

Considering these factors, the Guardians vs Yankees ALCS prediction is for the Yankees to win in seven games.

Tags:
• MLB Playoffs