As the NFL playoffs get underway, some teams have a clearer road to the ultimate game than others. Here is our assessment of the easiest paths and biggest Super Bowl underdogs.
Oddsmakers have a vision of which teams have the best and worst chances. But these games do not always play out as expected. A tipped ball, a bad day, a fumble, bad weather, a coaching misstep—all can contribute to a historic upset. It’s important to weigh these factors when analyzing games.
Super Bowl LIX Odds
| Team/Moneyline | Team/Moneyline | Team/Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Lions +325 | Chiefs +340 | Bills +550 |
| Ravens +575 | Eagles +675 | Vikings +1400 |
| Packers +2200 | Buccaneers +2500 | Chargers +3300 |
| Rams +3500 | Commanders +4500 | Broncos +8000 |
| Texans +8000 | Steelers +8000 |
Teams With the Easiest Super Bowl Path
This year has been unusual in that two 14-win teams and one 13-win team are playing Wild Card matchups. Normally, that would be enough to get a first-round bye. One 14-win team, Minnesota, is going on the road because they didn’t even win their division.
Depending on how the ball bounces, the following teams have the easiest paths to the Super Bowl:
Buffalo Bills
If the Bills beat Denver and Pittsburgh beats Baltimore, they will play either the Chargers or Houston because Kansas City gets the lowest remaining seed, which would be Pittsburgh. LA visiting Buffalo in what is likely to be a *John Facenda voice* “frozen tundra” is a very difficult game for LA to win.
The Steelers are well-coached by Mike Tomlin and quarterback Russell Wilson has been in these situations before. They’re battle-hardened and have a punishing running game and hard-hitting defense. They can beat aging and tired Kansas City on the road.
Pittsburgh at Buffalo for the AFC Championship Game would mean the Bills are at least seven-point favorites.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs got the number 3 seed. It was understated at the time but will provide them with several advantages.
From their perspective, if they beat sixth-seeded Washington, they will avoid Detroit in the divisional round. Regardless of who wins the Rams-Vikings game, either one of those teams or Green Bay (if they upset Philadelphia) will go to Detroit.
A best-case scenario for Tampa is for the Packers to beat the Eagles. They would play either the Rams or Vikings and it would be in Tampa. Should they get to the NFC Championship Game, they would either be in Detroit or they would host Green Bay. They beat Detroit on the road in the second game of the regular season, 20-16.
Biggest Super Bowl Underdogs
Sometimes, wild card qualifiers who barely squeak into the playoffs act as if they have nothing to lose while their opponents — with the better record, home-field advantage, and greater expectations — are tight.
Such was the case in the 2009-10 season when the 9-7 Jets traveled to play the 13-3 Chargers and won.
Still, the road is far tougher for several teams, particularly the following:
Los Angeles Rams
The wildfires engulfing Los Angeles forced the league to move what would have been a Rams home game against the Vikings to Arizona.
Even if the Rams get past the Vikings, their likely opponents in the divisional round are either Detroit or Philly on the road. The Lions will have David Montgomery back and be refreshed from two weeks’ rest.
LA going on the road and playing in freezing Philly is a tough ask.
Houston Texans
No one believes in the Texans. They only beat one prototypical “good” team during the regular season, a 23-20 win over the Bills. Without receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, how are they getting past the Chargers focused on stopping running back Joe Mixon?
A win and they’re probably going to Kansas City. If they somehow beat Kansas City, are they beating Baltimore or Buffalo on the road?
Denver Broncos
Denver would have missed the playoffs had Kansas City played its stars in the season finale.
The Chiefs and every AFC playoff team were thrilled to jettison the Bengals, Travis Kelce’s denials on Jason Kelce’s podcast aside:
So let’s say Denver somehow beats Buffalo. Bo Nix has a magical day. Bills coach Sean McDermott has his annual playoff gaffe. Josh Allen struggles.
Are they going to Kansas City and beating the Chiefs? Beating the 1 and 2 seeds on the road? Very, very improbable.
Teams Jockey for Positioning for a Super Bowl Run
Playoff teams look at potential matchups, compare rosters, look at past battles, and react accordingly as the season winds down. Some unwittingly benefit. Others make the mistake of wanting a team they should avoid.
Those who are analyzing who will win and by how much should do the same as they deduce a Super Bowl winner.
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