Cowboys vs Jets NFL Pick: Reeling NYJ Desperate for a Win (Oct 5)

• For NFL Week 5 Cowboys-Jets, New York at 0-4 is desperate for a win, while Dallas (1-2-1) hopes its defense can improve and keep up with their high-powered offense
• Dallas tied the Packers in Week 4, a 40-40 back-and-forth that was exciting if not a clinic on effective defense
• The Jets lost their fourth straight, giving the Dolphins their first win
• The teams last met nearly two years ago to the day, with Dallas winning 30-10

The Cowboys’ Must Plug Their Leaky Defense

For those trying to blame the Micah Parsons trade on the Cowboys’ defense being so awful so far this season, it should be noted that Dallas put up 40 points…against Parsons and the Packers in Week 4.

Unfortunately for them, they also surrendered 40 as the teams tied.

Parsons was a non-factor, registering only 1 sack and 3 combination tackles.

Dallas QB Dak Prescott lit up the scoreboard with a 31 of 40 performance, amassing 319 yards and 3 TD passes. He had a 124.9 passer rating.

He did this without number 1 receiver CeeDee Lamb.

George Pickens was tremendous in stepping into the number 1 spot, catching 8 balls for 134 yards and 2 TDs. Running back Miles Sanders missed most of the Packers game with an ankle injury, but coach Brian Schottenheimer expressed optimism that it’s not serious.

Dallas is last in the league in defensive yards allowed per game. They’re 28th in takeaway differential at -4. They’ve been passable against the run, ranked 12th. Defensive backs DeRon Bland and Trevon Diggs have been dealing with nagging injuries, Bland to his foot and Diggs to his knee.

The Cowboys only have 4 sacks on the season and must generate a better pass rush to give their defensive backfield a chance.

Same Old Jets, Only Worse

The Jets hired Aaron Glenn amid the expectation that he would clean up the poor fundamentals and reduce the mental mistakes.

He has yet to do so, and the lack of basic football competence has led to four losses to open Glenn’s tenure as head coach.

Two prime examples from Monday night’s loss to the Dolphins were the lack of ball security on Braelon Allen’s fumble as he was about to score a touchdown, and Isaiah Williams fair catching a punt at his own 3-yard line in the fourth quarter with the Jets down by 11.

Good teams cannot make up for these mistakes. And the Jets are not a good team, giving them less margin for error. They have a few good players and should be competitive, but without a quarterback who can get the ball down the field and the endless series of unforced errors they make every game, how can they win close games?

While the Cowboys have been bad in takeaways, the Jets have been worse, ranked last in the NFL at -7.

QB Justin Fields returned from a concussion and, on the surface, his numbers against Miami were respectable. He completed 20 of 27 passes for 226 yards and 1 TD. He scored a touchdown on an audacious 43-yard rush after a terribly designed and broken play.

The Dolphins have a decent secondary. The Cowboys have struggled mightily in that area. Fields needs to push the ball downfield to Garrett Wilson. And they cannot put the ball on the ground.

Cowboys vs Jets Pick

The Jets are middle of the pack against the pass and poor against the run. The Cowboys’ secondary has been atrocious, but Fields cannot get the ball deep with any consistency.

The Jets will not win a shootout with the Cowboys, particularly since their QB cannot be trusted to exploit Dallas’ biggest weakness in the defensive backfield. Expect a big game from Javonte Williams, with Prescott advancing the ball through the air to Jake Ferguson and the occasional deep strike to Pickens.

Dallas is favored by 1 on the road. They will win the game outright over the hapless Jets.