Chiefs vs Jaguars NFL Pick: After Winning 2 Straight, KC Heads to Jax (Oct 6)

• In NFL Week 5 Chiefs-Jaguars on Monday Night Football, KC hopes to keep its win streak going against the surprising 3-1 Jags
• After an 0-2 start, there were questions about whether this was it for the Chiefs, but 2 wins changed the narrative for the moment
• Jacksonville won 2 games against weak competition, the Panthers and Texans, but the 3rd win over the 49ers was impressive
• KC last played Jacksonville in 2023, beating them twice in the calendar year, including the Divisional Round of the 2022-23 playoffs

KC’s Win Over the Ravens Was a Positive Sign

After starting the season by losing to the Chargers in Brazil and the Eagles at home, the Chiefs did what they needed to do by squeaking past the Giants. Then they blew out the Ravens, looking like the team we’ve come to expect.

Patrick Mahomes completed 25 of 37 passes for 270 yards and 4 TD passes. Xavier Worthy returned from injury and caught 5 balls for 83 yards. Travis Kelce was targeted five times and caught all 5 passes for 48 yards. Mahomes did an excellent job of spreading the ball around.

Baltimore is reeling, so the Chiefs’ win might not have been as impressive as it otherwise would be, but they’re back to 2-2 and no longer dealing with the constant questions as to whether their run is over. For now.

Isiah Pacheco looked better than he has all season, rushing for 35 yards on 7 carries. Kareem Hunt rushed for 34 on 13 carries. KC must get its running game going. As the season wears on, they might consider trading for Alvin Kamara. They need better production from the backfield.

On defense, they did a fine job of containing Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.

Jacksonville has been excellent at both running the ball and stopping the run, so it will come down to Mahomes getting the ball downfield.

A Big Test for the Rejuvenated Jags

After their first three games, the Jaguars were 2-1 with wins over the struggling Panthers and Texans. They blew a game to the Bengals and their backup QB, Jake Browning. In Week 4, they had a major test against the 49ers and won 26-21.

The conclusion of the game featured a surprisingly fiery reaction by head coach Liam Coen challenging ‘Niners defensive coordinator Robert Saleh for his comments about the Jags’ alleged sign-stealing.

This is the type of thing players love, particularly from a rookie head coach they are still getting familiar with.

Trevor Lawrence has been up and down statistically with a 58.3 completion percentage and a 75.1 passer rating. He had 5 TD passes and 4 picks.

Travis Etienne is averaging a league-leading 6.1 yards per carry.

Jacksonville is first in the NFL in takeaway differential at +9. Their defense struggles against the pass, ranked 24th in the league in passing yards per game allowed.

Chiefs vs Jaguars Pick

KC might have quieted the noise after their slow start, in which they looked tired and old, but they are still not back in championship form. Jacksonville is a reasonably tough test, a team that is gaining confidence and has a realistic chance to make the playoffs.

Even though the Jaguars have been effective at stopping the run, the Chiefs need to get Pacheco going. If they can run the ball, it will open up lanes for Worthy, Kelce, Noah Gray, and Hollywood Brown, among others.

For the Jaguars, they will need to win the turnover battle to win the game. Etienne has been effective. That must continue.

The Jaguars will keep the game within the 3.5-point spread.