Published Jun 6, 4:23pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 6, 4:23pm ET
Updated Jun 6, 4:23pm ET
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| St. Louis Cardinals | -130 |
| Cincinnati Reds | +110 |
Rhett Lowder is 3-3 with a 5.40 ERA. He's been on the shelf since early May with right shoulder discomfort, not the kind of injury that clears up completely in a month. He came through a Triple-A rehab start on Tuesday with 70 pitches, eight strikeouts, and three runs allowed in five innings. Francona confirmed the activation. The start is happening.
But pitch limits matter here. Lowder won't get stretched past 70-75 pitches on Sunday, which means the Reds' bullpen carries real weight in the middle and late innings. Before hitting the IL, Lowder was giving up runs at an elevated clip; there's no reason to expect that trend to reverse immediately in a first outing back on 30 days' rest. The Reds rank in the middle of the league offensively. Their ability to win this game depends on Lowder not giving it away early.
Michael McGreevy is 3-5 with a 2.98 ERA. The record doesn't match the run prevention; the Cardinals have not given him consistent run support. He's held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts, and his 2-0 record with a 0-1 ERA in two career appearances against Cincinnati is a relevant data point for this specific matchup.
St. Louis is 33-28 and has won four of its last five at home. Alex Bregman and Pete Crow-Armstrong give the Cardinals lineup its most reliable run-producing options. The bullpen has been one of the NL Central's better units this season. McGreevy doesn't need to be perfect; he needs to be efficient through five or six innings and let the backend close it out.
McGreevy at home against a pitcher returning from a shoulder injury with a 70-pitch cap. Cincinnati can't lean on Lowder the way they would a healthy starter. St. Louis gets the pitching edge and the bullpen edge in the same afternoon.
Cardinals.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -130
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Pick
St. Louis Cardinals -130
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