Published Jun 6, 3:05pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 6, 3:05pm ET
Credit: Shutterstock
Updated Jun 6, 3:06pm ET
Tunisia and Japan meet on matchday 2 of Group F at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey, with both sides coming off their opening fixtures against Sweden and the Netherlands respectively.
Takefusa Kubo leads Japan's attack after Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino were both ruled out through injury.
Japan beat England 1-0 at Wembley in a pre-tournament friendly, the first Asian nation ever to do that. And they arrive in North America with something to prove. The squad has been dealt real injury blows. Kaoru Mitoma, arguably their best player, is out with a hamstring injury. Takumi Minamino missed out after rupturing his ACL in December. Neither has recovered in time. That puts the creative weight squarely on Takefusa Kubo, the 24-year-old Real Sociedad winger who is one of the more technically gifted players at this tournament.
Wataru Endo anchors the midfield from Liverpool, with Daichi Kamada and Ao Tanaka alongside him at Crystal Palace and Leeds. Ritsu Doan scored equalizers against both Germany and Spain at the 2022 World Cup, coming off the bench. Ayase Ueda leads the line from Feyenoord. The attacking depth is real even with the injuries. Japan presses with discipline and attack in transition, and against a Tunisia side that hasn't qualified from the group stage in seven attempts, the margin for error is thin.
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Tunisia beat world champions France 1-0 at the last World Cup. They held Brazil to a draw in the same tournament. They know how to punch above their weight. Hannibal Mejbri (the Manchester United midfielder) brings the kind of technical quality and pressing intensity that can cause problems for any midfield. Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane was their top scorer in qualifying with four goals and gives them a genuine threat in transition.
The problem is the bigger picture. This is Tunisia's seventh World Cup and they have never made it out of the group stage. The squad is well-organized and defensively disciplined, but the attacking output beyond Hannibal and Ben Romdhane thins quickly. Japan's pressing system, if it fires, will test Tunisia's ability to build from the back. Tunisia's best hope is a low-block, counter-attack setup that catches Japan on the transition. They've done it before. Whether they can sustain it for 90 minutes here is the question.
Japan has the technical edge and the tournament pedigree to grind this out. Kubo stepping up without Mitoma is a risk, but Doan, Kamada, and Ueda give Moriyasu enough to work with. Tunisia's ceiling without a clear attacking structure above Hannibal is limited. Japan to win in a tight one. We're backing Japan -155.
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Pick
Japan -155
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