Published May 28, 8:44pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 28, 8:44pm ET
Updated May 28, 8:44pm ET
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| Los Angeles Dodgers | -120 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | +100 |
Zack Wheeler has a 2.30 FIP on the season. His FIP over his last three starts is 1.82. He is pitching at the top of his range right now, with command clean, contact quality down, and swing-and-miss rates where they need to be. Philadelphia swept San Diego this week and is 11-2 on the road under their interim manager since the coaching change.
Wheeler will not give this game away. He is capable of going seven innings against a Dodgers lineup hitting near the top of the NL, and that has happened before with elite pitchers in the regular season. The question is whether Philadelphia's offense can do enough behind him.
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber anchor a Phillies lineup that has been producing on the road. They are not a team that shows up at Dodger Stadium and rolls over.
Justin Wrobleski is outperforming his FIP by half a run on the season. The ERA looks clean; the underlying contact quality says he has had some help getting there. Against a lineup like Philadelphia's, that margin gets tested in ways a weaker opponent might not produce.
He has been useful for Los Angeles this season. Serviceable starts, kept the Dodgers in games, done what a back-end rotation option needs to do. But the pick here is not about Wrobleski being good; it's about what Los Angeles does after he comes out, and what the offense does while he is in.
Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman give the Dodgers their most dangerous bats. The lineup is hitting .786 OPS as a unit, the best run-producing number in this set of matchups on Friday. Los Angeles has gone 8-2 in their last ten and is the second-best team in the NL by record.
Wheeler is the better pitcher. The Dodgers have the better lineup. Those two facts pull in opposite directions, and this is the game on the Friday slate that requires the most reasoning.
Philadelphia has been excellent on the road and Wheeler gives them a real path to win this game. That is not a dismissible argument. But the Dodgers are at home with the best offense available, -113 is asking you to lay almost nothing, and Wrobleski only needs to hold things together long enough for the lineup to take over.
When an elite visiting pitcher meets the best home lineup on the slate, the lineup wins more often than the pitcher. Dodgers tonight.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -113
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Pick
Los Angeles Dodgers -113
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