Published May 28, 7:52pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 28, 7:52pm ET
Updated May 28, 7:52pm ET
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| Cincinnati Reds | +119 |
| Atlanta Braves | -143 |
Grant Holmes is not a name that generates attention. His FIP over his last three starts is 2.01, and that number is doing more than his rotation spot implies. Recent form has been sharp, command has been where it needs to be, and contact quality has been manageable. Nothing in the last three outings looks like a pitcher pitching over his head.
Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson give Atlanta its most dangerous bats. The Braves are hitting .756 OPS as a team and have been generating runs consistently across the month. They do not need Holmes to be dominant; they need him to be what he has been.
Chris Paddack has a 6.86 ERA and a 4.53 FIP. His FIP over his last three starts is 4.65. The ERA is 2.33 runs higher than the FIP, which means the results have been worse than his contact quality alone explains. Some of it is sequencing, some of it is bad timing. The actual pitch-to-pitch quality has been better than the surface.
Here is the problem: even with the generous read, 4.53 FIP against an Atlanta lineup at .756 OPS is not a profile that survives. He has been getting away with it at times because the sequencing has been unlucky in the wrong direction. Against this offense on Friday, that margin disappears quickly.
Elly De La Cruz and Jonathan India give Cincinnati the tools to manufacture runs. The Reds are not a dead lineup — they are a .707 OPS team that can score. The gap between the two offenses is real but not enormous.
Paddack's ERA is 2.33 runs higher than his FIP. The surface has been beating him up in ways the underlying quality does not fully deserve. That is the case for Cincinnati: their starter has been worse than he should be, and maybe Friday is the night the sequencing evens out.
It is not a strong argument when the lineup going against him hits .756 OPS and his best-case FIP number is still 4.53. Atlanta also has the better bullpen by a significant margin. Holmes is sharp right now.
Pick: Atlanta Braces -143
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Pick
Atlanta Braces -143
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