Published May 27, 10:39am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 27, 10:39am ET
Updated May 27, 10:39am ET
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| San Diego Padres | +125 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | -150 |
Cristopher Sánchez is 1.62 ERA and 2.02 FIP on the season. His last three starts have produced a 1.23 FIP, meaning his most recent work has been better, not just lucky, compared to the year-long number. He is not a pitcher who has built a shiny ERA and is waiting for regression. He is a pitcher who was already excellent and is trending further up. Petco Park, one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in the National League, is an ideal setting for him tonight.
Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper anchor a Philadelphia lineup that has been producing runs at a consistent rate throughout May. The Phillies have the depth in the middle of the order to generate scoring opportunities against a pitcher working from behind, and with Sánchez on the mound they need only average run support to win.
Walker Buehler is 5.05 ERA and 3.80 FIP. His ERA has been running worse than his underlying numbers, meaning he has pitched slightly better than the surface results reflect. The problem is his last-three FIP of 4.40, which tells you the trajectory is not improving. The gap between his season FIP and his recent FIP suggests he has been getting worse over the past few weeks, and tonight he faces the hottest starting pitcher on the board in a park that already limits offense.
San Diego's lineup can score runs; the Padres have capable hitters throughout the order and their home crowd gives them an environment where they compete. But the starter matchup tonight is as lopsided as any on the Wednesday slate, and the gap between Sánchez's trajectory and Buehler's is growing, not shrinking.
Sánchez's last-3 FIP is 1.23. He is getting better. Buehler's last-3 FIP is 4.40 — trending cold. Philadelphia has the elite arm, the better recent form, and a park that will play to Sánchez's strengths. At -150, the price is fair for this kind of pitching edge on the road. Take the Phillies.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -150
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Pick
Philadelphia Phillies -150
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