Published May 23, 9:07am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 23, 9:07am ET
Updated May 23, 9:07am ET
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| Cincinnati Reds | -110 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | -110 |
Andre Pallante is 4-4 with a 4.04 ERA, a 4.46 FIP, and a 1.35 WHIP across nine starts. After a 5.31 ERA in 31 starts last year, 2026 has been a genuine step forward. The numbers are in line with each other. He has been a league-average rotation piece for the Cardinals, which is what they need him to be going into a park that inflates offense.
Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt give St. Louis the primary run producers in the lineup, and the Cardinals carry a .709 OPS. The offense is not explosive but it is functional, and against a pitcher with Paddack's history it should produce enough early.
Chris Paddack was released by Miami on May 5 after going 0-5 with a 7.63 ERA in six starts. The Reds picked him up ten days later. In Cincinnati he is 0-5 with a 7.07 ERA, a 4.75 FIP, and a 1.63 WHIP. The FIP is better than the ERA, but 4.75 is still poor — the ERA has been amplified by bad sequencing on top of genuine struggles. His career line is 32-41 with a 4.79 ERA across multiple organizations. This is not a reclamation that has worked.
Elly De La Cruz is having the best season of his career, hitting .274 and batting second. Sal Stewart, a rookie NL ROY candidate, is batting third at .291 with nine home runs and an .812 OPS. The top of the Cincinnati order is genuinely dangerous. The team is first in the NL Central and has the individual talent to make any pitcher's night difficult. Great American Ball Park plays in their favor too — this is a park that produces runs, and against Paddack, the Reds lineup has every reason to be aggressive early.
Pallante's 4.04 ERA and 4.46 FIP are both cleaner than Paddack's 7.07 ERA and 4.75 FIP, and the Cardinals have the pitching edge by every available number. Great American Ball Park will produce runs on both sides. The question is which starter is more likely to keep the damage manageable.
Pallante has been doing that. Paddack has not done it anywhere this season. At even money, the Cardinals are the right side.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -110
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Pick
St. Louis Cardinals -110
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