Published May 20, 2:50am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 20, 2:50am ET
Updated May 20, 2:50am ET
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| Kansas City Royals | -122 |
| Boston Red Sox | +101 |
Connelly Early has a 3.21 ERA and a 4.62 FIP. That is a gap worth sitting with. He has gotten through starts without the damage accumulating the way his underlying contact numbers would predict — strand rates have worked in his favor, and the hard contact has found gloves at a rate that will not hold. His ERA is the result of pitching that has been good in outcome and mediocre in process, and those two things eventually converge. Boston is 5-5 in their last ten, which is a team that is functional without being a threat to run away from this game.
Rafael Devers has been productive in the middle of the order and gives the Red Sox the power they need to capitalize on early mistakes. The lineup has enough to compete, particularly against a Kansas City team that has struggled to close out games lately. Early needs to keep his ERA from catching up to his FIP for at least six innings to give Boston a chance tonight.
Michael Wacha is 2.83 ERA and 4.20 FIP. His ERA is also running ahead of the underlying numbers (hitters have not punished him at the rate his FIP suggests they should). Both pitchers tonight are selling a version of themselves the surface stats describe better than the process does. The difference is Wacha is doing it in his own ballpark, and the FIP edge is on the Kansas City side.
The Royals have gone 2-8 in their last ten, which is the part of this game that makes it complicated. Kansas City has not been winning, and that skid has come against a schedule that was not particularly brutal. Bobby Witt Jr. remains the most dangerous individual bat in the lineup, and when he produces early it tends to shift how pitchers approach the rest of the order. The lineup is not the problem. The problem is the team has not been finding ways to close.
Both starters are pitching better than their FIPs and neither ERA is what it looks like. Kansas City gets the slight FIP edge and the home field, and at -122 the price is not asking for a lot.
Pick: Kansas City Royals -122
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Pick
Kansas City Royals -122
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