Published Feb 4, 8:06pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Feb 4, 8:06pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Feb 4, 8:11pm ET
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| Seattle Seahawks | -5 (-108) |
| New England Patriots | +5 (-112) |
Sam Darnold is the 1st QB in #NFL history to win 30+ games in a 2-year span with 2 different teams. pic.twitter.com/SlTa8tmN8I
— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) January 31, 2026
Sam Darnold, as the Seahawks' quarterback, will get the bulk of the attention due to the sheer nature of the position. It's rare when a team will win a Super Bowl with a QB who is simply along for the ride.
After a journeyman career of relegation, benching, and taking backup positions, Darnold has already shut up his critics by simply making it to the Super Bowl. Now, he can become part of history by winning it.
For the second consecutive season, he led his team to a 14-3 record. In 2024, it was with the Vikings who, mistakenly, declined the chance to keep him with a franchise tag, and it likely cost Minnesota GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah his job.
That misstep was to Seattle's benefit.
Darnold threw for more than 4,000 yards, had 25 TD passes, and 14 interceptions. He ended the regular season with a passer rating of 99.1.
In the playoffs, he stepped up his game against the 49ers and Rams, completing 37 of 53 passes for 4 TDs and no picks. He had a 122.4 passer rating.
He's here because he deserves to be here.
Still, if the Seahawks win, it won't be because of what Darnold does, but what he doesn't do.
He is prone to interceptions. For him to be successful, he needs an effective rushing attack. Runners Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III were largely shut down in their losses. Not completely shut down, but limited, forcing Darnold to throw to get the ball downfield.
If Darnold is in a shootout, he is going to throw a big interception that could cost the Seahawks the game.
The Seahawks' defense and its special teams are crucial to victory.
Seattle rushes the quarterback effectively from a variety of angles. They amassed 47 sacks in the regular season, tied for 8th overall with the Texans. Veterans Leonard Williams and DeMarcus Lawrence had 7 sacks and 6 sacks, respectively. Byron Murphy and Uchenna Nwosu had 7 each.
They were 5th in interceptions with 18, led by linebacker Ernest Jones with 5.
In addition to the pressure and the ballhawking, they hit very, very hard. Head coach Mike Macdonald spent years working under John Harbaugh with the Ravens. They were known for their defensive intensity. He adhered to the Seahawks' lineage, going back to the Legion of Boom. It is steeped in a fearsome defense.
The Seahawks defense will likely hold the Pats to fewer than 24 points.
Seattle is missing Charbonnet, out with a knee injury. Walker III has carried the load in the two playoff wins over San Francisco and Los Angeles. But if New England, as expected, focuses on stopping him, then Darnold will need to throw.
Smith-Njigba is an All-Pro and arguably the best receiver in football.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba totaled a league-leading 1,378 yards when aligned as an outside receiver this season after pacing the NFL with 956 from the slot in 2024.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 3, 2026
He is the only player in the Next Gen Stats era to ever lead the NFL in both categories.#SEAvsNE | #SuperBowlLX pic.twitter.com/Z4k90wBBl4
If New England clamps down on Smith-Njigba downfield, Darnold will need to hit Cooper Kupp, AJ Barner, and Rashid Shaheed.
The Patriots will win if they force Danold into turnovers as he is wont to do. Hitting Smith-Njigba with at least two or three big plays and getting a moderately effective rushing attack from Walker III will be the keys to the Seahawks winning.
Shaheed providing a big kick/punt return also goes a long way towards hoisting the Lombardi Trophy again.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Zack Charbonnet, RB | INJURED |
| Chazz Surratt, LB | INJURED |
| Amari Knight, OT | INJURED |
| Brady Russell, FB | INJURED |
| Tony Horton, WR | INJURED |
For the 12th time in franchise history, the @Patriots are AFC Champions! #SBLX pic.twitter.com/KyKvXdaHyo
— NFL (@NFL) January 25, 2026
Hatred for the Patriots has returned. It's as though it were in a 7-year period of suspended animation. Those victimized by Bill Belichick and Tom Brady during their two-decade run of dominance suddenly felt safe to pop their heads out only to get hit again.
This time, there's a 23-year-old QB, Drake Maye, and a 50-year-old coach, Mike Vrabel, who could conceivably be the bane of the NFL's existence for the next 15 years.
The Pats' schedule is repeatedly referenced as though they waltzed to a 16-3 record, pounding on the Jets and no one else.
I’ve gotten to the point that I don’t even care about the weak schedule narratives. They’re not going away. People are looking for ways to continue to discredit this team. They’ll do it even after the #Patriots win the Super Bowl.
— Pats Planet 🪐 (@PatsPlanet_) January 30, 2026
The only thing that’ll matter is the RING 💍 pic.twitter.com/Apz0hOwf2K
That schedule did include the Jets twice. And the Patriots did pound them twice. But they also beat the Panthers and Bills. They scored 32 against the Browns' tough defense. They won a shootout with the Buccaneers and dropped the Ravens. In the playoffs, they stopped the Texans and Broncos.
"But it was in the snow! It ruined the Broncos' offense!"
This is reminiscent of complaining about the Pats' first Super Bowl run under Belichick/Brady when the tuck rule saved them in the snow against the Raiders.
Were the subsequent two games, the second of which they overcame being two touchdown underdogs against Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk an the "Greatest Show on Turf," somehow irrelevant?
No matter how they got here, they're here. New England is back in the Super Bowl under a new football ops regime with no Belichick or Brady in sight.
Vrabel played for Belichick and understands the Patriots Way. That includes limiting penalties, forcing turnovers, not turning the ball over themselves, and, most importantly, taking away from the other team what they do well.
And that will be the key to another upset victory against a favored opponent in the Super Bowl.
Maye understands his role. He cannot panic in the pocket against the Seahawks' rush and try to get the ball out before he's engulfed. As long as he doesn't do anything reckless and is calm in the face of a tough defense like he was against the Broncos, the Seahawks will need to score on offense to win.
That is where Vrabel will take a page out of the Belichick playbook and try to remove the two key components of Seattle's offense from the equation. Namely, Walker III and Smith-Njigba.
The Patriots, in their win over the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI, essentially let Faulk do whatever he wanted while clamping down on Warner and preventing him from tearing them up with passes to Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, and Ricky Proehl.
Most importantly, the Patriots hit them hard every time they did get the ball.
If Walker III and Smith-Njigba are mitigated, Darnold must rely on his arm with Harold Landry and K'Lavon Chaisson in his face. This leaves the secondary, not exactly ballhawks, to look for openings to make picks with Marcus Jones and Christian Gonzalez.
Now, if Darnold can function and prevent turnovers while not having the security of a good running game with Walker III and the injured Charbonnet, or the big play capability of Smith-Njigba, so be it. But it's a gamble worth taking and one the Pats need to take to try and pull off the upset.
Ball security might be the decisive factor. Maye had fumbling issues during the season. There's no need to harp on the importance of holding onto the ball in the face of Seattle's aggression on defense.
An important note is the concern over Maye's shoulder. He insists he's fine.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Drake Maye, QB | INJURED |
| Hunter Henry, TE | INJURED |
| Morgan Moses, OT | INJURED |
| Harold Landry III, LB | INJURED |
| Terrell Jennings, RB | INJURED |
| Mack Hollins, WR | INJURED |
Super Bowl LX's Seahawks-Patriots matchup is being thinly framed as a rematch since the teams met in Super Bowl XLIX. But the Patriots were Belichick-Brady and the Seahawks were Pete Carroll, Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, and the Legion of Boom.
Malcolm Butler played a bit of a role on the Pats' win as well.
This game is more comparable to the first Pats' Super Bowl with Brady and Belichick against the high-powered and heavily favored Rams. There's a great deal of "How are they here?" and "Do they even deserve to be here?" bewilderment going on regarding the Patriots.
That plays right into their team-centric identity.
The Seahawks' defense is tough, but Maye is elusive and can run when he's under pressure.
Vrabel's team has executed its game plans all season long and Super Bowl LX will be no different. They will limit, if not outright stop, Walker III and Smith-Njigba, forcing Darnold into seeing the same ghosts he saw when he was a Jet and dealt with New England's onslaught.
Sam Darnold is seeing ghosts of Patriots legends
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) February 4, 2026
NEW SUPER BOWL #GRIDIRONHEIGHTS 🏆 pic.twitter.com/JL8gfUaZtF
That was nearly 7 years ago and the cast of characters is different. Darnold is different. But the result will be similar as he's goaded into mistakes and the Patriots keep the score within 5 points and likely win the game outright.
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New England Patriots +5
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