Published Jan 14, 11:50am ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jan 14, 11:50am ET
Grok AI
Updated Jan 14, 11:50am ET
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| Seattle Seahawks | -7.5 (-105) |
| San Francisco 49ers | +7.5 (-115) |
The 49ers have overcome devastating injuries and inner turmoil to reach the NFC Divisional Round and now they're getting healthy.
The win over the Eagles on the road served notice to the rest of the league that they should underestimate Kyle Shanahan and the 'Niners at their peril. Trailing 16-10 at the start of the 4th quarter, Shanahan and offensive coordinator Klay Kubiak (who may end up with a head coaching opportunity this cycle) broke out the trick play handbook with a Christian McCaffrey TD reception on an option pass from receiver Jauan Jennings.
JAUAN JENNINGS TD PASS TO CMC
— NFL (@NFL) January 12, 2026
SFvsPHI on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/18VxTpTKgj
They fell behind again on a Jake Elliott field goal, but a second McCaffrey TD reception, this time from the actual QB, Brock Purdy, gave them the lead with just under 3 minutes remaining. Robert Saleh's defense held off Jalen Hurts and Co. to seal the win.
Of course, the Seahawks are a vastly different bird than the dysfunctional, bickering, perpetually unhappy Eagles.
The game was not without its cost as star tight end George Kittle tore his Achilles and is gone for the season. While San Francisco has overcome every obstacle so far, having lost Purdy for almost half the season, Fred Warner and Nick Bosa out, and the team essentially telling Brandon Aiyuk to take a hike as he didn't seem to want to return from injury or be part of the team.
How much can they overcome? Jake Tonges filled in admirably for Kittle early in the season, but he's not Kittle.
Can the 'Niners, in their current state, stop the Seahawks' running game here when they couldn't do it two weeks ago? Against Philly, Saquon Barkley ran for 126 yards. It was Hurts' inability to come through late in the game that cost the Eagles more than anything else.
Warner, rehabbing a broken and dislocated right ankle, is getting close to a return, but it won't be until the NFC title game at the earliest, if they get there.
ALSO SEE: Bills vs Broncos | AFC Divisional Round Odds & NFL Pick (Jan 16)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| George Kittle, TE | INJURED |
| Fred Warner, LB | INJURED |
| Dee Winters, LB | INJURED |
| Trent Williams, OT | INJURED |
| Yetur Gross-Matos, DE | INJURED |
| Luke Gifford, LB | INJURED |
| Ji'Ayir Brown, S | INJURED |
| Ricky Pearsall, WR | INJURED |
| Kelon White, DE | INJURED |
| Dominick Puni, G | INJURED |
Seattle is functioning on all cylinders and, after the week of rest, will be fully prepared for the rematch of Week 18 with the 49ers.
Still, with teams like the Seahawks, who came seemingly from nowhere to leapfrog the conference bullies, the Eagles, 'Niners, Rams, and Lions, they need to win in the postseason to validate their rise.
There are lingering questions about the most important player on just about any NFL team's roster, the QB.
Sam Darnold has a 28-6 record over the past two seasons playing for the Vikings and Seahawks. No, the teams did not solely rely on him as the Bills do with Josh Allen. But he knows his role and does not go beyond his capabilities and the game plan for personal glory.
I still don’t understand why the Vikings moved on from Sam Darnold...
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 10, 2026
He's clearly a franchise QB. What an awful mistake. pic.twitter.com/tSiFwlMA4w
To be fair, Darnold's disastrous performance in the Vikings' Wild Card loss to the Rams might have been the final determinative factor in Minnesota deciding to stick to its plan to hand the reins to J.J. McCarthy rather than retain Darnold, which they could have done with a franchise tag.
In 2025 for the Seahawks, Darnold was efficient and effective, particularly in big games like the Week 18 win in San Francisco. That victory serves as a template for how the Seahawks will approach the Divisional Round matchup. They did three things that they'll need to repeat to win and host the NFC Championship Game:
Seattle is a bad matchup for San Francisco. They have a strong pass rush led by Byron Murphy, Leonard Williams, Uchenna Nwosu, and DeMarcus Lawrence. The secondary hammers receivers.
They mitigate their own mistakes on offense with their running game and avoid putting Darnold in a position where he needs to win games on his own, situations in which he tends to make mistakes.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Riq Woolen, CB | INJURED |
| DeMarcus Lawrence, DE | INJURED |
| Elijah Arroyo, TE | INJURED |
| Tyrice Knight, LB | INJURED |
| Josh Jones, G | INJURED |
| Chazz Surratt, LB | INJURED |
For the 49ers-Seahawks Divisional Round showdown, the game will come down to which team can execute its game plan more effectively.
This has been a 49ers strength under Shanahan.
The Seahawks remain an unknown in that regard. This is head coach Mike Macdonald's first playoff game as a head coach. Darnold has limited postseason experience but for last season's Wild Card loss with the Vikings. As 2.5 point favorites at a neutral site, he completed 25 of 40 passes for 245 yards, 1 TD, and 1 pick. The Rams pasted the Vikings 27-9.
Saleh will try to force Darnold into mistakes and focus on the run to compel him to throw the ball. If Darnold comes through, that opens up the run game for Walker and Charbonnet, and the Seahawks will win.
The question is how close the game will be.
Seattle is favored by 7.5 points. It's a hefty spread. While the Seahawks will likely squeak through, it will be closer than that.
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Pick
San Francisco 49ers +7.5
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