Published Jan 21, 11:24pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jan 21, 11:24pm ET
Grok AI
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| Seattle Seahawks | -2.5 (-115) |
| Los Angeles Rams | +2.5 (-105) |
The Rams went to Chicago to face the young Bears and got everything they could handle and more, nearly losing after another miracle pass by Caleb Williams, but pulling the game out in overtime.
The game hinged on playoff experience. The Rams have it. The Bears didn't.
Williams hit Cole Kmet on a desperation heave into the end zone on 4th down with 18 seconds remaining. In overtime, it appeared as if Chicago's young, dynamic QB was about to rip out LA's collective hearts when Kamren Curl intercepted a pass intended for D.J. Moore at midfield, setting the stage for Harrison Mevis' game-winning field goal.
What a CATCH Kam Curl! #TipsAndOverthrows
— Darius Butler (@DariusJButler) January 19, 2026
pic.twitter.com/77pLGMbQEY
Experience in every facet, from coaching on down, was a primary difference in letting the Rams escape Chicago with a win. Sean McVay had his team prepared on the sideline. Rams QB Matthew Stafford didn't turn the ball over and Williams tossed 3 picks.
Stafford was playing with an injured index finger on his throwing hand, but still completed 20 of 42 passes for 258 yards. LA's Kyren Williams scored 2 TDs on the ground.
While LA's performance was good enough in Chicago, largely due to winning the turnover battle 3 to 0, if they play in Seattle the same way they did in the Windy City, they'll suffer the same fate as the 49ers did.
Still, LA's scoring machine had no trouble with the Seahawks' defense in Seattle in their last matchup. The Rams put up 37 points and lost in overtime after a frantic Seahawks comeback from a 16-point deficit with 13:34 remaining.
LA's defense has been shaky at times, but it picked off Darnold 6 times in the two regular season matchups.
In the playoffs, LA very nearly lost in the Wild Card round to the Panthers before they went to Chicago and beat the Bears, almost losing there too. Their savvy got them through against two young teams. The Seahawks are also a veteran team. They will not walk into the same mistakes the Bears and Panthers did, nor will they be overwhelmed by the moment.
It's not difficult to predict the Seahawks' strategy. They'll accept and understand that Stafford is likely to hit a few big plays to Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Colby Parkinson. But Seattle's defense is bringing back memories of the Super Bowl-winning Legion of Boom for a reason. They pursue the QB, hit skill players hard, and wear them down to remove their will by the 4th quarter.
LA must make sure not to give up any big kickoff or punt returns to Rashid Shaheed.
Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL and is out for the season. That means Kenneth Walker III will be heavily used, and Darnold might be goaded into mistakes.
ALSO SEE: Patriots vs Broncos | AFC Championship Odds & NFL Pick (Jan 25)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Emmanuel Forbes Jr., CB | INJURED |
| Byron Young, LB | INJURED |
| Quentin Lake, S | INJURED |
On the opening kickoff, Seattle set the tone on a Shaheed 95-yard TD return. By the end of the 1st quarter, it was 17-0. The entire 49ers offense was under siege from Seattle's swarming, bashing defense.
RASHID SHAHEED 95-YARD KICKOFF RETURN TO START THE GAME.
— NFL (@NFL) January 18, 2026
SFvsSEA on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/buR0WrfA6x
'Niners QB Brock Purdy was held to 140 yards through the air and intercepted once, posting a passer rating of 54.6. Christian McCaffrey ran for 35 yards on 11 carries and caught 5 balls for 39 yards.
Without George Kittle, the Seahawks clamped down on Jauan Jennings, Kendrick Bourne, and Ricky Pearsall, holding them to a combined 2 catches, both by Jennings.
The Seahawks are going to try to pressure Stafford and hit him, hoping to beat him down and force him to rush his throws. The defensive front seven, led by Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy, DeMarcus Lawrence, Drake Thomas, and Uchenna Nwosu, is going to hammer Stafford and Williams. If they can win the turnover battle, they have a great chance of winning the game.
That will also rely on Darnold not tossing picks as he has in the two games against the Rams this season. He's always been a gambler and threw 14 interceptions during the regular season.
Darnold must be efficient and minimize mistakes. He showed no ill effects from the strained oblique he suffered right before the 49ers game.
The loss of Charbonnet is a big challenge for them to overcome. He was their red zone back, scoring 12 TDs on the season. Walker will face a major workload in the title game.
With Charbonnet out, expect the Rams to key on Walker and All-Pro wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. LA wants to force Seattle to rely on Cooper Kupp, AJ Barner, and Elijah Arroyo.
The Seahawks desperately wanted to get home field advantage throughout the NFC bracket because the so-called "12th man" in Seattle (the home fans) makes it one of the toughest places for road teams to play in the league. During the days of Pete Carroll, Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, and Marshawn Lynch, the crowd was a key part of the team's success.
They will make it impossible for the Rams to hear themselves think in the NFC Championship Game.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet, RB | INJURED |
| Charles Cross, OT | INJURED |
| Uchenna Nwosu, LB | INJURED |
| George Holani, RB | INJURED |
| Elijah Arroyo, TE | INJURED |
| Sam Darnold, QB | INJURED |
| Robbie Ouzts, FB | INJURED |
| Amari Kight, OT | INJURED |
| Bryce Cabeldue, G | INJURED |
| Josh Jones, G | INJURED |
In the Rams-Seahawks NFC Championship matchup, it is an intra-division meeting between two teams that know each other well. They are relatively evenly matched and, in many ways, it is a dream for the league that the highest scoring offense in the Rams meets the stingiest defense with the Seahawks.
If LA can get the ball downfield, establish a perfunctory rushing attack with Williams, and protect Stafford, they have a good chance of scoring enough points to win the game. On defense, they must force Darnold into mistakes and take advantage of Charbonnet's absence.
Seattle needs only to repeat what it did against the 49ers. It sounds simple, but that kind of dominating performance can be quite rare. The Seahawks are on a tear, having won 8 straight games. Darnold must be cautious but not shy. His oblique injury was not a problem against the 49ers, but it is a lingering concern.
The Rams came precariously close to getting bounced in their first two playoff games against young, inexperienced teams. Their luck will run out against the veteran Seahawks as Seattle will head back to the Super Bowl for the first time in 11 years.
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Pick
Seattle Seahawks -2.5
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