Jets vs Bills NFL Pick: Buffalo’s Seed Remains in Question For the Playoffs (Jan 4)

Published Jan 2, 4:47pm ET by

Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer

Last updated Jan 2, 4:47pm ET

Pick status

Grok AI

Updated Jan 2, 4:47pm ET

  • For NFL Week 18 Jets-Bills, it is the final game in Highmark Stadium before the Bills move to their new home next season
  • Buffalo (11-5) can get the #5 seed, but it probably won't happen; the #6 or #7 are likeliest
  • All together now: J-E-T-S...Just End the Season!!!
  • The teams met in Week 2 when the pending Jets disaster was a mere inevitability rather than a reality and Buffalo won 30-10 at MetLife
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Overview Watch On: CBS

DATE & TIME

Sunday, January 4, 2026 @ 4:25 PM ET
Buffalo Bills
Highmark Stadium
Orchard Park, NY
New York Jets
GAME ODDS
BetOnline
Buffalo Bills -8 (-105)
New York Jets +8 (-115)

The Jets Are on the Verge of History Only They Could Manage

The Jets, in the middle of another woeful season at 3-13, are on the verge of doing something no NFL team has ever done. If they do not get an interception against the Bills, they will manage to get through the entire 2025 season without a single pick.

Not one.

It's unfathomable for this to happen with all the bad passes, poorly run routes, mistakes, tipped balls, and other unquantifiable factors that influence every play. But they can somehow do it.

It's not an accomplishment.

There's not much to say about the Jets that the Week 17 loss to the Patriots didn't say.

They lost 42-10. Pats QB Drake Maye was chilling on the bench early in the 3rd quarter. They were down 35-3 at halftime and the score could have been 60-10 if New England had been so motivated.

Yes, the Jets are looking for a higher draft pick, but this game wasn't much different than any of their December games. It kind of throws a wrench into head coach Aaron Glenn's insistence that the games still matter and the team is playing to win.

The NFL media has repeatedly said that Glenn will be back for 2026. But Black Monday is coming. It's very possible that owner Woody Johnson will fire Glenn. Maybe he'll pull a George Steinbrenner and bring back Rex Ryan.

To be blunt, he wouldn't be wrong.

There's an art to tanking and the Jets have managed it without even trying.

ALSO SEE: Colts vs Texans | Week 18 Odds & NFL Pick (Jan 4)

Injury / Suspension
PLAYER STATUS
Qwan'tez Stiggers, CB INJURED
Jelani Woods, TE INJURED
Isaiah Davis, RB INJURED
Mason Taylor, TE INJURED
Michael Clemons, DE INJURED
Brandon Stephens, CB INJURED
Tyrod Taylor, QB INJURED
Breece Hall, RB INJURED
Justin Fields, QB INJURED
Joe Tippmann, G INJURED
Xavier Newman, G INJURED

The Bills' Seeding Scenarios Vary

Here's the scenario for the Bills as they prepare for the playoffs:

  • For the #5 seed, they need to beat the Jets and for the Texans and Chargers to lose
  • For the #6 seed, they need to beat the Jets and have either the Texans or Chargers lose; or they win, the Jaguars lose, and the Texans and Chargers win.
  • For the #7 seed, the Bills would need to lose to the Jets

The likeliest scenario is that they will get the #6 seed. The Chargers are sitting Justin Herbert, so they don't care whether they win or not. It would be a cataclysmic shock if Buffalo loses to the Jets.

QB Josh Allen plans to play. He is coming off a tough outing in a 13-12 loss to the Eagles when a missed extra point by backup kicker Michael Badgley led to the Bills going for 2 after a late TD to try and win the game.

Allen missed a wide open Khalil Shakir.

Badgley was subsequently cut. Matt Prater, who had been out with a calf injury, is back.

The best-case for the Bills is to get a big lead early against a team that is just looking forward to putting this dreadful season in the rearview. Then they can pull Allen, James Cook, Shakir, and every other key player they'll need to finally get over the hump and make the Super Bowl.

Injury / Suspension
PLAYER STATUS
DaQuan Jones, DT INJURED
Jordan Poyer, S INJURED
Joey Bosa, DE INJURED
Dalton Kincaid, TE INJURED
Ed Oliver, DT INJURED
Terrel Bernard, LB INJURED

Jets vs Bills Pick

In Week 18 Jets-Bills, it's not exactly a playoff game for Buffalo, but they do need to win to try and get the highest seed possible and the chance at another home game this season. It's more like a preseason game they're trying to win against a dispirited Jets team that is playing rookie Brady Cook at QB and is sitting most of the few key players they have.

Buffalo will try to put New York down early and remove Allen and others.

Once they get a double-digit lead, the Jets will fold, possibly spending the rest of the game trying to get an interception to avoid the latest ignominy in a franchise history full of it.

The one thing to consider is that the Jaguars and Texans games will be over by the time the Bills take the field. That could influence how hard they play.

Still, Buffalo will cover the spread and wait out the results of the relevant games that impact them and their playoff run.

Pick
Buffalo Bills -8
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