Published Jan 2, 12:20pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jan 2, 12:20pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Jan 2, 12:20pm ET
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| Houston Texans | -10.5 (-110) |
| Indianapolis Colts | +10.5 (-110) |
Which were the "real" Colts?
Was it the team that became a trendy Super Bowl pick amid the feel-good story of Daniel Jones rebounding from his tumultuous time with the Giants and started at 7-1?
Or is it the team that has lost 7 of 8 and 6 in a row and became so desperate to save their season that they called Philip Rivers away from his "Rivers Bunch" family after five years away?
WATCH: Philip Rivers tears up as he dives into his motivation for returning to the #Colts:
— WISH-TV News (@WISHNews8) December 15, 2025
"Maybe it will inspire or teach not to run or be scared of what may or may not happen." pic.twitter.com/iRZ4aOf071
Maybe it's both.
They're not this bad, but they weren't that good either.
Obviously, Indy would like to finish the season above .500. The game matters to the Texans, Jaguars, Bills, and Chargers. But Rivers will not play. Rookie Riley Leonard, whom they didn't trust enough to hand the reins after Jones tore his Achilles, will take the start at QB.
Star running back Jonathan Taylor is expected to play, but it's unlikely he'll be in there for long.
Sauce Gardner and DeForest Buckner are out.
ALSO SEE: Titans vs Jaguars | Week 18 Odds & NFL Pick (Jan 4)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Zaire Franklin, LB | INJURED |
| Sauce Gardner, CB | INJURED |
| Will Mallory, TE | INJURED |
| Anthony Richardson, QB | INJURED |
| TAnor Bortolini, C | INJURED |
| Drew Ogletree, TE | INJURED |
| Anthony Gould, WR | INJURED |
| DeForest Buckner, DT | INJURED |
The Texans know what's at stake here. The game matters, but they are essentially locked in at the #5 seed, barring the unfathomable.
They can still take the AFC South, but that would require them beating the Colts and the Jaguars losing to the Titans. If the Chargers or Bills win and the Texans lose, Houston will drop a slot or two. However, LA and Buffalo are sitting Justin Herbert and Josh Allen, respectively. So Houston's position is about as set in stone as it can be.
The Texans got into this position with their Week 17, 20-16 win over the Chargers. The game was a tight affair and could have gone either way.
It took the Chargers' Pro Bowl kicker Cameron Dicker missing an extra point to ice the game.
Cameron Dicker just missed an extra point... what is happening?!?!?!? pic.twitter.com/KN6jy6kweQ
— Arye Pulli (@AryePulliNFL) December 28, 2025
Houston largely mitigated Herbert, holding him to 236 yards through the air and sacking him 5 times. For the Texans, C.J. Stroud was efficient, completing 16 of 28 passes for 244 yards and 2 TDs. He was picked off twice.
The game was a microcosm of how Houston will advance in the playoffs, if they advance.
They played a strong defense with a solid pass rush. Stroud was good, but not great. And Woody Marks and Jawhar Jordan accrued 107 yards combined on the ground. Houston's defense hits hard and has a tremendous secondary. The pieces are in place to make a run.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Sheldon Rankins, DT | INJURED |
| Derek Stingley, CB | INJURED |
| Azeez Al-Shaair, LB | INJURED |
| Trent Brown, OT | INJURED |
| Kamari Lassiter, CB | INJURED |
| Denico Autry, DE | INJURED |
| Ed Ingram, G | INJURED |
| Jamal Hill, LB | INJURED |
In Week 18 Colts-Texans, the game matters, but is not crucial given the situation.
Indy has its goal of finishing over .500. Houston wants to walk the tightrope of making sure they stay in their current #5 slot (though it doesn't matter that much) and have the slim chance of winning the division if the Jags slip up while also keeping the key players healthy for the playoffs.
For those hoping to get a last look at Philip Rivers, it's not happening.
This is a heavy spread. The Colts should keep it closer than 10.5 points, but it won't be close.
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Pick
Indianapolis Colts +10.5
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