Published Jan 9, 6:34pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jan 9, 6:34pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Jan 9, 6:34pm ET
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| Pittsburgh Steelers | +3 (-113) |
| Houston Texans | -3 (-107) |
After a 0-3 start, the Texans and their fans were in a crisis. In fairness, they lost those games by a total of 13 points. Starting in Week 4, they righted the ship and began winning...and winning...and winning.
The terrible start aside, their two losses for the rest of the season were against the #1 seeds in each conference, the Seahawks and Broncos. It wasn't as if they were playing bad teams either. They beat the 49ers, the Jaguars, the Bills, the Colts twice, the Chiefs, and the Chargers.
The Texans went from 0-3 to 3-5 to 12-5.
— Bradeaux (@BradeauxNBA) January 4, 2026
They just tied a franchise record with 9 straight wins. One of the best turnarounds we’ve seen in NFL History.pic.twitter.com/LNJuqT8tMF
The question about them is whether their offense will score enough to support their superlative defense. QB C.J. Stroud seemed affected by his concussion and has been somewhat tentative since his return. That, however, could be due to the team telling him to take caution to avoid another head hit.
Houston wins its games with defense and takeaways. They were 2nd in the NFL in takeaway differential at +17 and were in the top 10 in sacks. On offense, they do not have a home run threat at wideout. Tight end Dalton Schultz led the team with 82 catches. Their running game is handled by committee with Woody Marks having led the team in yards on the ground with 703. Young Jawhar Jordan has shown promise.
Can the Steelers keep defensive ends Danielle Hunter (15 sacks) and Will Anderson (12 sacks) out of Rodgers' face? Houston's defensive backfield is filled with ballhawks Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, Calen Bullock, and Jalen Pitre. And the entire defense hits very hard, sometimes to the point of getting penalized for it.
Lassiter has ankle and knee issues, but expects to play. Stingley is dealing with an oblique.
Rodgers doesn't like getting hit. And he can't really move all that well anymore.
ALSO SEE: Chargers vs Patriots | Wild Card Odds & NFL Pick (Jan 11)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Jawhar Jordan, RB | INJURED |
| Kamari Lassiter, CB | INJURED |
| Sheldon Rankins, DT | INJURED |
| Derek Stingley Jr., CB | INJURED |
| Tytus Howard, OT | INJURED |
| Denico Autry, DE | INJURED |
| Jaylen Reed, S | INJURED |
| Jamal Hill, LB | INJURED |
| Trent Brown, OT | INJURED |
| Ajani Carter, CB | INJURED |
The Steelers got a reprieve from a potentially tumultuous offseason, at least for a week, when Ravens kicker Tyler Loop missed a 44-yard field goal in Pittsburgh that would have won the game for Baltimore.
TYLER LOOP MISSES THE FIELD GOAL
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 5, 2026
THE STEELERS HAVE WON THE GAME
AARON RODGERS IS IN THE PLAYOFFS
GAME OF THE FREAKING YEARpic.twitter.com/DeQTAWtCj4
In an alternate universe where Loop hits that field goal and the Ravens win the AFC North instead of the Steelers, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin might be on the unemployment line instead of John Harbaugh, and the team could have followed the lead of the Jets a year ago (imagine anyone doing that intentionally?!) by telling Rodgers they were moving on from him.
But...
That's not what happened.
And the Steelers are still here.
Now, can they take advantage of it?
They won the division because of the Ravens' poor season and the Bengals' injuries. Rodgers was good, but he's a shadow of what he was. Their defense is aging and battered. On offense, they'll go as far as Rodgers can take them. Against the Texans' bashing defense, how far is that?
Their rushing attack is solid with Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell out of the backfield running the ball and catching passes. D.K. Metcalf will return from his suspension.
But the game will come down to Pittsburgh's defense smothering Houston's inconsistent offense. It's difficult to envision the Steelers scoring more than 20 points on the Texans. Linebacker T.J. Watt is still recovering from his collapsed lung. He recorded an interception against the Ravens.
Their secondary is vulnerable, ranked 29th in the NFL in yards allowed per game. They will need to pressure Stroud, stifle the run, and win the turnover battle to beat the Texans and advance.
Overall, the Steelers' injury report is clean. Jonnu Smith has a glute issue, but will play.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith, TE | INJURED |
| Isaiahh Loundermilk, DT | INJURED |
| Darnell Washington, TE | INJURED |
The Texans-Steelers Wild Card matchup is the veteran Steelers with its proven players trying for one final run, and the young Texans hoping to enter the Super Bowl conversation as the AFC guard is changing.
Can Rodgers find the magic of his youth? It's important to remember that for all of Rodgers' accomplishments, he's played in and won one Super Bowl. Many of the teams he played for were powerhouses that got unexpectedly bounced in the playoffs, frequently due to a Rodgers mistake. Now he's playing for a team that is going to need major changes due to age and decline in the coming years.
If Houston wants to reach the next level, it can't lose games like this. Stroud must take advantage of the vulnerable Steelers' secondary and the Texans' defense needs to ramp up its trademark aggressiveness (without the unnecessary roughness penalties and worse) and make sure the Steelers know they're in for a rough go.
Houston is favored on the road and will win the game. It won't be particularly close.
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Houston Texans -3
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