Published Jan 9, 10:49am ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jan 9, 10:49am ET
Grok AI
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| New England Patriots | -3.5 (-106) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +3.5 (-114) |
The Chargers had a very good regular season...in context.
When looked at objectively, however, there remains a question as to how they will do against playoff-caliber teams, particularly as beaten up as they are and with the holes they have.
Sure, they won 11 games. Two were against the Raiders. One was against the Titans. Two were over the Chiefs, which, in retrospect, are no longer as impressive as they were at the time. They did beat the Steelers and Broncos. But they also lost to the Commanders and Giants. The Jaguars blew them off the field. They also lost to the Texans.
Head coach Jim Harbaugh's teams hit hard. They play hard. But do they have the personnel to compete on the road against an offensive juggernaut in the cold with a frenzied crowd?
Adding in that QB Justin Herbert has been running for his life all season, that they don't have a home run threat at receiver, and their rushing attack has been mediocre, it puts them in a tough spot to win this game.
"I don't care how great of a quarterback you are, you can't throw the ball from your back."
— Jim Rome (@jimrome) January 8, 2026
Chargers legend @shawnemerriman says protecting Justin Herbert will be a key factor versus New England. pic.twitter.com/hQSqw5x03S
LA is not built for a shootout. Their key is how their defense plays and holding the Pats under 20 points. In 2025, LA was in the top-8 in both defensive yards allowed through the air (5th) and on the ground (8th). They only surpassed 30 points in a game three times against the Vikings, Raiders, and Cowboys.
It's Harbaugh's second year as LAC head coach. It's probably too soon to expect them to jump into Super Bowl contention. There are too many holes and too many injuries at the moment, barring an above-and-beyond performance from their defense and Herbert.
ALSO SEE: 49ers vs Eagles | NFC Wild Card Odds & NFL Pick (Jan 11)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton, RB | INJURED |
| Elijah Molden, CB | INJURED |
| Del'Shawn Phillips, LB | INJURED |
| Austin Deculus, OT | INJURED |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith, WR | INJURED |
| Bud Dupree, LB | INJURED |
| Tucker Fisk, TE | INJURED |
| Kendall Williamson, S | INJURED |
| Nikko Reed, CB | INJURED |
It didn't take as long as expected for the Patriots to get back to the top of the NFL after Tom Brady's departure and Bill Belichick's downward spiral. But here they are. Again.
Somewhat similarly to the Chargers, they benefited from a weak schedule to get to 14 wins. But late in the season, apart from the reality check loss to the Bills, they are hitting their stride at just the right time. While they didn't get the #1 seed, it might be better for them as a younger team not to have the break and to stay in their routine. When this season is over, they might realize that the loss to the Bills was a blessing in disguise.
They have all the pieces in place to start another run, tormenting the league. The keys are QB Drake Maye and head coach Mike Vrabel. They also have a solid rushing attack with TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, and a bend-but-don't-break defense.
Maye is efficient and cautious with a completion percentage of 72.0 in 2025, 31 TD passes, and only 8 picks. He led the league with a passer rating of 113.5. In addition, he ran for 450 yards. He's in the mix for NFL MVP.
The youngest player to lead the NFL in completion % in the Super Bowl era:
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) January 6, 2026
Drake Maye🎯 pic.twitter.com/FepkZPdr3h
The Pats' offense has become a machine late in the season. Of course, the last two games were over the Jets and Dolphins in which they outscored their opponents 80-20. Both games could have been far worse if they hadn't called off the dogs and pulled their starters early. In Week 16, they staged a comeback against the Ravens that started Baltimore on its final downward slide, stoking the firing of John Harbaugh.
Can they now knock out Jim Harbaugh?
They finished 2nd in the league in points per game. They were 4th in the league in fewest points allowed per game. New England was in the top-9 in passing yards per game, rushing yards per game, fewest passing yards allowed per game, and fewest rushing yards allowed per game.
In short, they're a prototypical Patriots team that limits mistakes and takes advantage of opportunities.
There have been distractions of late with DT Christian Balmore accused of domestic assault, and WR Stefon Diggs accused of strangulation and assault. Both have denied the allegations.
Vrabel will keep the team focused.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Kayshon Boutte, WR | INJURED |
| Jared Wilson, G | INJURED |
| Harold Landry III, LB | INJURED |
| Khyiris Tonga, DT | INJURED |
| Thayer Munford Jr., OT | INJURED |
| Vederian Lowe, OT | INJURED |
| Garrett Bradbury, C | INJURED |
For the Chargers-Patriots Wild Card playoff game in New England, it is another step on the ladder for LA under Jim Harbaugh while New England starts what it hopes is another long run with a potentially generational QB and a stern, football-savvy head coach.
Both teams benefited greatly from friendly schedules. But the Chargers were more of a product of that than the Pats were. New England started slowly while LA started quickly. The Pats hit their stride and are a force on offense. This might be a harder game to gauge than if it were in a dome and the Chargers were healthy.
But it's in New England. There will be a playoff-hungry crowd. The Chargers are nursing injuries and can't protect their QB.
This is a surprisingly light spread that the favored Pats should cover easily.
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Pick
New England Patriots -3.5
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