Published Jan 15, 10:23pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jan 15, 10:23pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Jan 15, 10:23pm ET
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| New England Patriots | -3.5 (+100) |
| Houston Texans | +3.5 (-120) |
The Texans have ridden their ferocious defense to 10 straight wins. Their 30-6 battering of the Steelers ended Mike Tomlin's tenure as Pittsburgh's head coach and was likely the final game of Aaron Rodgers' career.
Houston's defensive line was relentless, blasting Rodgers at every opportunity, sacking him four times, and holding the Steelers' ground game to 63 yards. The Texans scored 14 points on defense, including Sheldon Rankins running back a Rodgers fumble 33 yards.
BIG MAN TOUCHDOWN 🔥
— ESPN (@espn) January 13, 2026
Texans force the strip-sack fumble on Rodgers and run it in for the TD 🤯 pic.twitter.com/Ie1DwfuF4c
Along with the superlative defense, the running game was effective. Woody Marks ran for 112 yards on 19 carries. Nick Chubb added 48 yards on 10 carries. But worryingly, C.J. Stroud struggled.
His numbers ended up respectably, completing 21 of 32 passes for 250 yards. But he was uncertain and looked overwhelmed at times. The Patriots' defense will not be as forgiving as the battered and old Steelers' defense. Drake Maye will be harder to corral than Rodgers was.
The key to the Texans' season, beyond its punishing defense, was its ability to force turnovers and to avoid them on offense. They were +17 in takeaway differential. If they can goad Maye into giving them the ball and pound New England's running backs and get them to put the ball on the ground, they should mitigate the Pats' offensive firepower. Should they manage that, they have a great chance at representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.
Stroud's offensive struggles could be made worse by the likely absence of wide receiver Nico Collins, who suffered a concussion against the Steelers.
#Texans Pro Bowl WR Nico Collins has suffered a concussion and will not return to tonight’s playoff game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 13, 2026
This was the play: pic.twitter.com/j27qX75or4
ALSO SEE: 49ers vs Seahawks | NFC Divisional Round Odds & NFL Pick (Jan 17)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Nico Collins, WR | INJURED |
| Jawhar Jordan, RB | INJURED |
| Ajani Carter, CB | INJURED |
| Justin Watson, WR | INJURED |
| Sheldon Rankins, DT | INJURED |
| Kamari Lassiter, CB | INJURED |
| Tytus Howard, OT | INJURED |
| Ed Ingram, G | INJURED |
| Trent Brown, OT | INJURED |
| Azzez Al-Shaair, LB | INJURED |
| Denico Autry, DE | INJURED |
Had the Chargers been able to protect QB Justin Herbert and muster any kind of offense at all, then the Patriots' offseason would already be underway.
But Herbert was held to 159 yards passing. Kimani Vidal managed 31 yards rushing on 11 carries. And the Pats scored just enough to take control of the game on three Andres Borregales field goals and a 4th quarter Hunter Henry TD catch from Maye to seal the deal.
HUNTER HENRY MAKES IT A TWO-SCORE GAME
— NFL (@NFL) January 12, 2026
LACvsNE on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/MuIjMaqOpn
LA's offense was so inept that they could only manage a 21-yard field goal by Cameron Dicker.
The Pats' offense was 2nd in the NFL in points per game this season, but they were lucky to get 16 against the Chargers. If they play that poorly against the Texans, they're going to lose.
Despite that, Maye completed 17 of 29 passes for 268 yards, 1 TD, and 1 pick.
With Houston's defense as opportunistic as it is and as hard as it is to run the ball or get the ball downfield against them, the Pats' likeliest path to victory is to heavily pressure Stroud and force him into mistakes.
Expect New England to aggressively try to establish the run with TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, and to take deep shots to take advantage of the Texans' ball-hawking secondary that sometimes values hard hits over making plays.
It's important to note that the Patriots' most recent loss came to a high-powered offense when the Bills came back from 24-7 down to beat them. They fought their way through tough defenses to win against the Browns and Buccaneers.
If this game turns into a shootout, they're going to win.
Star cornerback Christian Gonzalez suffered a concussion against the Chargers, but has been a full participant at practice.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Terrell Jennings, RB | INJURED |
| Christian Gonzalez, CB | INJURED |
| Alex Austin, CB | INJURED |
| Morgan Moses, OT | INJURED |
| Harold Landry III, LB | INJURED |
| Thayer Mumford Jr., OT | INJURED |
| Anfernee Jennings, LB | INJURED |
In the Texans-Patriots Divisional Round matchup, it is Houston's classic big-time defense taking on a New England offense that, before the Wild Card win over the Chargers, had been running on all cylinders.
Contingent on Stroud's ball security, if the Texans' defense is as good against the Patriots as it was against the Steelers, they're going to win easily. The key for New England is to hit at least two big strike plays in the game, whether it's a deep shot from Maye, a long run, a pick-6, or a special teams TD.
Maye got through the first playoff game nerves and should be fine in the Divisional Round.
This will be a tight, closely contested game with the underdog Texans keeping it within 3.5 points.
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Pick
Houston Texans +3.5
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