Published Jan 21, 12:33pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jan 21, 12:33pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Jan 21, 12:33pm ET
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| Denver Broncos | +4.5 (-110) |
| New England Patriots | -4.5 (-110) |
The Patriots are one win away from Super Bowl LX! pic.twitter.com/rqWicNztu4
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 18, 2026
This is the nightmare scenario for the people who grew to despise the Patriots for their success and undeniable arrogance. One year after the team was a laughingstock for falling to the depths of 4-13 for the second consecutive year, they're one game away from a return to the Super Bowl.
With Broncos QB Bo Nix breaking a bone in his ankle and being lost for the remainder of the playoffs, there is a somewhat reasoned justification to allege divine intervention or an outright conspiracy is getting the Pats back on top.
But here they are on the precipice of completing an unexpected run reminiscent of their first Super Bowl title with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.
Head coach Mike Vrabel and QB Drake Maye are 60 minutes away from immediately ending any reference to the duo that led the Pats for all those years and six Super Bowls.
Their win over the Texans in the Divisional Round epitomized how they have gotten to this point. Maye was efficient, completing 16 of 27 passes for 179 yards and 3 TDs in the cold and snow. He was picked off once. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson combined for 95 yards on the ground.
Both teams were careless with the ball as Maye fumbled four times and lost two. He was also intercepted once. But Houston's C.J. Stroud was worse, getting picked off four times, including a pick-6 by Marcus Jones. Stroud accrued an embarrassing passer rating of 28.0.
PATS INSANE PICK-6 😱
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 18, 2026
C.J. Stroud's SECOND INT of the game...
WOW.
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/sWjBzd6a9v
Maye did not wilt in the face of Houston's terrifying defense despite being sacked five times for 36 yards.
The task in front of them changed substantially when Nix got hurt. Right there, the Pats went from likely 2.5-point underdogs to 4.5-point favorites on the road in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL.
This is a unique situation in other ways.
Broncos backup QB Jarrett Stidham was a Patriots' 4th round pick out of Auburn in the 2019 NFL Draft under the Belichick regime. In 2022, he joined the Raiders under then-Vegas head coach Josh McDaniels. McDaniels is now in his third go-round as the Pats' OC.
In his first career start, Jarrett Stidham was 23/34 with 365 yards and 3 TDs.
— NFL (@NFL) January 20, 2026
What kind of stats will he put up in his first playoff start? 👀
NEvsDEN– Sunday 3:00pm ET on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/SygxhWKCdw
In short, the Pats know Stidham as well and perhaps better than the Broncos and Sean Payton know him.
Stidham has been with the Broncos for three years and hasn't thrown a pass in a regular season game since 2023 when he took over for Russell Wilson when Payton was clearly taking steps to avoid the risk of needing to pay Wilson $37 million if he got injured. They cut Wilson after the season.
Stidham is the epitome of a journeyman. He has ability, but the Pats will understand that the Broncos need to drastically adjust their game plan to accommodate him from the versatile Nix to the more stationary Stidham.
Expect New England to employ a very aggressive defense with blitzes and pressure from linebackers Harold Landry and K'Lavon Chaisson.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Carlton Davis III, CB | INJURED |
| Terrell Jennings, RB | INJURED |
There have been several examples of backup QBs thrust into the spotlight when the starter was injured as the team was heading for the playoffs. The most recent was the Eagles' Nick Foles winning a Super Bowl with the Eagles and being named game MVP.
Philly energy! 🎉 The Eagles hype up Nick Foles' birthday with a live 'Philly Special' chant — pure clubhouse joy. Say HAPPY BIRTHDAY NICK FOLES and tag a fellow Eagles fan! 🦅 #Eagles #NickFoles #PhillySpecial pic.twitter.com/8ahnPHdKms
— Statpro (@statpro_ai) January 21, 2026
The situation, however, cannot be compared to what the Broncos are facing with Stidham. Foles had been a starter in the league. He'd been to a Pro Bowl. And when he took over for Carson Wentz, there were three games left in the season with the Eagles already in the playoffs.
Head coach Doug Pederson and his staff had time to get Foles ready. Or readier since he was a five-year veteran.
The Giants won Super Bowl XXV with backup QB Jeff Hostetler. But that team used its punishing defense, a clock-draining offense, and the genius of Bill Parcells and Belichick. In fact, Hostetler's mobility might have been why they beat the 49ers in the NFC Championship. With Phil Simms, they'd already lost to the 'Niners that year and he was a pocket passer who would have been a sitting duck for San Francisco's pass rush.
Before Nix got hurt in the win over Buffalo, there were still head-scratching questions as to how Payton dragged his team this far, this fast.
They don't have a big-time rushing attack. Nix has been a magician with comebacks.
Their defense is high-pressure, having amassed 68 sacks in the regular season. The secondary, led by All-Pro Patrick Surtain II, is ball-hawking, particularly when it counts, as shown in the questionable interception call that eventually won them the Divisional Round game over the Bills.
For those confused about whether this was an interception, it was. Cooks never maintained full control coming to the ground, the ball comes loose, and it’s an interception by Ja’Quan McMillian. One of the best plays I’ve seen from a DB pic.twitter.com/UlFhuKGhNb
— Corey Rholdon (@Corey_RholdonTV) January 18, 2026
If anyone can formulate a game plan to account for Stidham's strengths and limitations, it's Payton. Nix could run and was conscious about ball security. Stidham is relatively immobile and has 8 career TD passes and 8 career interceptions. Denver needs to protect him while establishing the run and, at the same time, hold down the Pats' offense.
On a positive note, running back J.K. Dobbins will be designated for return from injured reserve to play Sunday.
It's asking a lot on a week's notice when Stidham has not taken first-team snaps in practice and probably took barely any snaps at all in practice.
The Broncos tended to fall behind in games and stage borderline miraculous comebacks to pull games out late. Can they get a lead against the Pats and smother the clock? Would Stidham bring the team back from the brink and a double-digit deficit late in a game?
This would be Payton's masterpiece, but it's hard to paint a masterpiece under this pressure.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Bo Nix, QB | INJURED |
| Alex Forsyth, C | INJURED |
| Troy Franklin, WR | INJURED |
| Pat Bryant, WR | INJURED |
For the Patriots-Broncos AFC Championship, the plot twist came out of nowhere with Denver losing its QB and now relying on a journeyman to squeak through.
New England's turnaround has come at lightning speed. While the debate as to who was most responsible for the Pats' dynasty, Brady or Belichick, is ongoing, it was owner Bob Kraft's gutsy and obviously necessary decision to jettison Jerod Mayo after one year and replace him with Vrabel that served as the primary catalyst to the team being on the verge of getting back to its home away from home, the Super Bowl.
Again, the football gods seem to have smiled on them with the main obstacle and a shot at another championship being a backup QB who their entire staff is familiar with.
Denver will need a Herculean effort from its defense to stop the Pats and hold them to fewer than 20 points while scoring enough on their own.
It's very hard to see that happening with the backup QB, Stidham.
The Patriots will win this game outright by more than 4.5 points and head back to the Super Bowl.
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Pick
New England Patriots -4.5
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