Published Nov 28, 11:38am ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Nov 28, 11:38am ET
Grok AI
|
|
|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | -3.5 (-115) |
| Houston Texans | +3.5 (-105) |
The Texans were in trouble after three weeks, having lost to the Rams, Buccaneers, and Jaguars. Since then, they have gone 6-2. Admittedly, two of the wins were over the atrocious Titans. But they also beat the Ravens and Bills. Given their hard-hitting defense, they are a threat in the playoffs, if they get there.
Starting QB C.J. Stroud has not played since Week 9 with a concussion. He has returned to practice and is expected to play against the Colts.
So CJ Stroud plays the Colts this week, at the Stroud House.
— big ounce (@_bigounce) November 25, 2025
3-1 vs the Colts in his career. Numbers look like 1,200 passing yards 7 TDs with 2 INTs. Let’s see how he adds to that this week 🔥 pic.twitter.com/vjLkZmsThe
Davis Mills has played well in his stead with an 83.7 passer rating, 5 TDs, and 1 interception.
As expected, Houston's defense is one of the NFL's best. They are 2nd in fewest points allowed per game, 3rd in defensive passing yards per game, and 5th in defensive rushing yards per game. They are +10 in takeaway differential. As a team, they have 33 sacks led by Danielle Hunter (11 sacks) and Will Anderson (10.5 sacks).
ALSO SEE: Jaguars vs Titans | Week 13 Odds & NFL Pick (Nov 30)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud, QB | INJURED |
| Denico Autry, DE | INJURED |
| Will Anderson Jr., DE | INJURED |
| Jamal Hill, LB | INJURED |
| Jalen Pitre, S | INJURED |
| Blake Fisher, OT | INJURED |
| Trent Brown, OT | INJURED |
Despite their hot start and status as a surprise team rife with great comeback stories, namely QB Daniel Jones, there have still been questions as to how "real" the Colts are.
Most of their wins were against bad teams. But they did defeat the Broncos and Chargers. In Week 12, they blew a 20-9 lead over the Chiefs with 8:37 remaining and lost in overtime.
At 8-3, they are in 1st place in the AFC South. But Jacksonville is nipping at their heels, and Houston is now 2 games back with 2 head-to-head games against each team in the stretch run.
Jones is dealing with a fractured fibula, but insists he will play.
#Colts QB Daniel Jones, who has been dealing with a lower leg injury, suffered a fracture in his fibula, sources say.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 27, 2025
Jones was a full participant today and one source said, “He looked good.” Jones will continue to try to play through it. Toughness never questioned. pic.twitter.com/86pfA5AdTN
With Jones compromised, particularly in his running ability, it will impact the entire offense, including all-world running back Jonathan Taylor. Taylor leads the league in yards, TDs, 1st downs, and yards rushing per game.
The Colts are 1st in points scored per game and 9th in points allowed per game. Their pass defense was a weak point, but they tried to address it by acquiring Sauce Gardner from the Jets.
Expect the Texans' ruthless defense to see exactly how injured Jones is.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Daniel Jones, QB | INJURED |
| Ashton Dunlin, WR | INJURED |
In Week 13 Texans-Colts, Houston has its chance to make a serious run toward the AFC South title with a victory. They travel to Indianapolis on a hot streak, with their starting QB Stroud likely to return, and with Indy QB Jones playing on a fractured fibula. If they can corral Taylor, they have a great chance of winning the game.
This is a key game for the Colts. If they win, they will essentially end Houston's divisional hopes.
The underdog Texans will keep the game within the 3.5-point spread and have a good chance of winning it outright.
|
Pick
Houston Texans +3.5
|
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000
|
