Published Dec 5, 8:56pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Dec 5, 8:56pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Dec 5, 8:56pm ET
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| Kansas City Chiefs | -3.5 (-110) |
| Houston Texans | +3.5 (-110) |
After an 0-3 start, the Texans looked like they were in serious trouble, particularly with the Colts and Jaguars getting off to solid starts. However, since then, Houston has won 7 of 9 to get back into contention for the AFC South title.
They worked their way through a rough schedule, beating the Ravens, 49ers, Jaguars, Bills, and Colts. After the Chiefs, they have two games where they will be favored to win against the Cardinals and the Raiders. The division title could come down to Week 18 when they host the Colts.
In their Week 13, 20-16 win over Indy, they celebrated the return of QB C.J. Stroud, who had missed three games with a concussion. He was 22 for 35 and 276 yards. He did not throw any TD passes and was picked off once. It was an unspectacular performance, but still important because there had been murmurs that the team should stick with Davis Mills, who had led the team to those three wins.
"We're super dangerous." - CJ Stroud talking with our @EvanWashburn following a HUGE divisional win over the Colts pic.twitter.com/swRhzGREVK
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 30, 2025
Houston's strength is its defense. They are 1st in the league in fewest points allowed per game. They're 2nd in takeaway differential at +9. As for defensive passing yards per game and defensive rushing yards per game, they're 4th in the league.
ALSO SEE: Rams vs Cardinals Week 14 Odds & NFL Pick (Dec 7)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Azeez Al-Shaair, LB | INJURED |
| Kamari Lassiter, CB | INJURED |
| Jaylen Reed, S | INJURED |
| Jamal Hill, LB | INJURED |
| Tim Settle Jr., DT | INJURED |
The Chiefs have lost 3 of 4, including a potentially devastating Thanksgiving defeat at the Cowboys' hands. They are 4 games behind the Broncos in the AFC West and have already lost to them, so the division is out of reach. They sit 2 games behind the Chargers and have lost to them too.
There is a pathway for them to get to the playoffs, but to do so, they will likely need to win 4 of 5. It's certainly possible, particularly with the battle-tested Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, et al.
But they need to beat the teams they're competing against for that playoff spot, and it includes the Texans.
Officially Texans Week. The Chiefs are 6-6 and need the greatest 5 week stretch just to get in the playoffs.
— Eddie Resurreccion (@EdmarResurrecc1) December 1, 2025
Gonna be tough, but this season has proved that nothing is impossible. Do something special, Kansas City.#ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/8Oz19h62ju
Mahomes was excellent against the Cowboys, completing 23 of 34 passes for 261 yards and 4 TDs. Their defense just couldn't stop the Cowboys.
This is not a good matchup for the Chiefs. But, as always, it's unwise to count them out given their history under Andy Reid and Mahomes.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Nikko Remigio, WR | INJURED |
| Jawaan Taylor, OT | INJURED |
| Trey Smith, G | INJURED |
| Chris Roland-Wallace, CB | INJURED |
| Josh Simmons, OT | INJURED |
For Week 14 Texans-Chiefs, both teams need this win. Ironically, Kansas City needs it more than Houston does. If the Chiefs lose this game, their playoff hopes are all but over.
Will that matter?
They have been inconsistent and the same good fortune that helped them during their Super Bowl runs seems to have abandoned them. The Texans are a notorious bully, and if they sense weakness, they're going to exploit it. They will be more than willing to hit Mahomes.
This will be a tight game that goes down to the wire and the underdog Texans will keep the score within 3.5 points.
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Pick
Houston Texans +3.5
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