Published Dec 24, 9:52pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Dec 24, 9:52pm ET
Grok AI
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| Los Angeles Chargers | -2 (-107) |
| Houston Texans | +2 (-113) |
Houston is one game behind the frontrunning Jaguars in the AFC South. They have a slim chance of winning the division, but with the Jags playing the Colts and Titans and the Texans playing the Chargers and Colts, it is difficult to envision it coming to pass.
Still, after their 0-3 start, the Texans have won 10 of 12, getting into a solid position
In Week 16, Houston avoided what would have been a humiliating and disastrous loss to the horrific Raiders at home as two-touchdown favorites. Las Vegas put up a good fight, but Houston escaped with a 23-21 win. Houston's defense could not stop Ashton Jeanty, who ran for 128 yards on 14 carries and added a 60-yard TD catch.
Ka'imi Fairbairn kicked 55, 50, and 49-yard field goals.
Derek Stingley Jr. ran back an interception 31 yards to open the scoring.
Head coach DeMeco Ryans was not happy with the performance.
DeMeco Ryans on the game vs the Raiders:
— Houston Stressans (@TexansCommenter) December 22, 2025
“We couldn’t run the football. We didn’t control the LOS how we needed to. On the flip side of that, they were able to run the ball effectively.”
We missed Woody Marks but I’m not sure how much it would’ve helped with how bad our OL was… pic.twitter.com/CX6oWtyQUG
Perhaps they were looking ahead, but if they play as poorly against the Chargers as they did against the Raiders, they're going to lose.
It's more likely than not that the Raiders game was an anomaly. Houston is 4th in the NFL in both defensive passing yards per game and rushing yards per game. They are also +15 in takeaway differential.
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| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Jamal Hill, LB | INJURED |
| Kamari Lassiter, CB | INJURED |
| Azeez Al-Shaair, LB | INJURED |
| Denico Autry, DE | INJURED |
| Sheldon Rankins, DT | INJURED |
| Dylan Horton, DE | INJURED |
| Derek Stingley Jr., CB | INJURED |
| Aireontae Ersery, OT | INJURED |
| Trent Brown, OT | INJURED |
| Jake Hansen, LB | INJURED |
| Ajani Carter, CB | INJURED |
Very stealthily, the Chargers are 11-4 and in contention for the #1 seed in the AFC. If they win their final two games over the Texans and Broncos, they will win the AFC West. Then they need the Jaguars and Patriots to each lose one of their final two games.
The Pats are playing the Jets and the Dolphins.
As mentioned earlier, the Jags are playing the Colts and Titans.
So, yeah. It's unlikely.
QB Justin Herbert is moving right along despite a fractured left hand that required surgery.
In the Week 16 win, 34-17 win over the Cowboys, he completed 23 of 29 passes for 300 yards and 2 TDs. He had a 132.8 passer rating.
-Broken hand
— Alex Insdorf (@alexinsdorf99) December 23, 2025
-25th ranked PFF supporting cast score
-An offensive line that entered the week 31st in run block and 32nd in pass block win rate
And yet: Justin Herbert is in the playoffs again. pic.twitter.com/rln41RiZD3
Running back Omarion Hampton had his best game since late September, running for 85 yards on 16 carries and scoring a TD.
Head coach Jim Harbaugh has quickly turned the Chargers into his preferred type of team with a hard-hitting defense, a dedication to the running game, and sound fundamentals. But they are vulnerable to strong pass rushers. If Herbert is hurried and LA can't get its running game going, they will have a tough time winning.
In the Wild Card Game last season, Herbert was sacked four times. They couldn't run the ball and had trouble stopping the run.
A potential distraction was eliminated when defensive coordinator Jesse Minter said he would not take the University of Michigan head coaching job. Of course, that could always change.
LA's defense is in the top-10 in the league for fewest defensive rushing yards and defensive passing yards allowed per game.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Kimani Vidal, RB | INJURED |
| Derius Davis, WR | INJURED |
| Benjamin St-Juste, CB | INJURED |
| Teair Tart, DT | INJURED |
| Mekhi Becton, G | INJURED |
| RJ Mickens, S | INJURED |
In NFL Week 17 Texans-Chargers, it is a key game for both clubs. Although their playoff positions are safe, they want to get the highest seed possible.
For the Chargers, they could get the top seed, a bye, and a clear path to the Super Bowl if things break right, but they need to start by beating the Texans.
The Texans have a tiny chance at the #1 seed, but myriad things would need to happen. It's not worth going through the scenarios since it almost certainly won't happen.
The Chargers and Texans are almost mirror images of each other. Herbert is a more trustworthy passer than his Houston counterpart, C.J. Stroud. Both teams rely on their defenses and make their opponents pay with punishing hits.
The Texans will rebound from their shaky performance against the Raiders, hold Herbert in check with their strong secondary and pass rush, and cover the light spread as road underdogs.
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Houston Texans +2
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