Published Dec 17, 11:48am ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Dec 17, 11:48am ET
Grok AI
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| Detroit Lions | -7 (-112) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +7 (-108) |
The Steelers have won two straight games to raise their record to 8-6. After their trip to Detroit, they travel to Cleveland to play the woeful Browns. They host the Ravens in Week 18. Baltimore plays the Patriots and Packers before heading to Pittsburgh. In short, the worst-case scenario for the Steelers is that they need to win the last game of the season against the Ravens to take the division. The likelihood is that they will have wrapped up the division before then.
With that, they do not need to beat the Lions.
Still, head coach Mike Tomlin will not rest his starters if they're healthy and able to play. In addition, the game matters to multiple teams in the NFC. The Steelers will try to win. But if the game gets out of hand in Detroit's favor, expect Aaron Rodgers, among others, to be pulled.
Rodgers had a turn-back-the-clock performance in Week 15's win over the Dolphins. He completed 23 of 27 passes for 224 yards, and 2 TDs. His passer rating was 125.9.
Only Aaron Rodgers can make a pass like that. pic.twitter.com/KOof0PCO9V
— VintageAaronRodgers (@VentageArod) December 16, 2025
Kenneth Gainwell was a centerpiece of the offense, running for 80 yards on 13 carries and catching 7 balls for 46 yards. Pittsburgh is loading up on trustworthy veteran receivers after acquiring Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Adam Thielen. The Jets recently waived another Rodgers favorite, Allen Lazard. He's a prime candidate to be Pittsburgh's next addition for the stretch run and the playoffs.
Pittsburgh's strength has been its opportunism with a +10 takeaway differential. If they're going to win in Detroit, they need to shut down running back Jahmyr Gibbs, which is a tall order.
It makes no sense for the Steelers to rush back linebacker T.J. Watt from his collapsed lung.
ALSO SEE: Bengals vs Dolphins | Week 16 Odds & NFL Pick (Dec 21)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| T.J. Watt, LB | INJURED |
| James Pierre, CB | INJURED |
| Andrus Peat, G | INJURED |
| Nick Herbig, LB | INJURED |
| Isaac Seumalo, G | INJURED |
| Derrick Harmon, DT | INJURED |
It's an easy narrative to suggest that the Lions' championship window has closed. After a 15-2 season in 2024 ended in disappointment when they were upset at home by the Commanders in the NFC Divisional Round, they lost both coordinators to head coaching jobs. Their former OC Ben Johnson went to the Bears, where he has Chicago fighting for the #1 seed in the conference.
The Lions have been unlucky and are losing games they were winning over the past few years. It's come down to a play here and a play there. But that's often how it goes in the NFL.
Week 15 was a prime example. Detroit went to halftime leading the NFC frontrunning Rams 24-17. But the Rams came out firing in the second half, scoring 17 unanswered points. They shut down Gibbs, holding him to 58 total yards and no TDs. Jared Goff played well, completing 25 of 41 passes for 338 yards and 3 TDs.
Still, Detroit's defense was like a colander, allowing Matthew Stafford to throw for 368 yards. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum combined for 159 yards on the ground.
The Lions can make the playoffs. They need to win their last three games and get help with the Bears losing to either the Packers or 49ers, or the Packers losing two of their last three games.
Lions best (and maybe only) path to the playoffs:
— Ryan Ermanni (@ErmanniMedia) December 15, 2025
**Lions win final 3 games (vs Pit, at Min, at Chi)
**Bears lose 2 of last 3 games (vs GB, at SF, vs Det) pic.twitter.com/9j1c62sBxl
Perhaps the Lions would have better luck in the postseason with diminished expectations.
The Lions lead the NFL in points scored per game. On defense, they are in the bottom quarter for allowing the most passing yards per game. They're reasonably opportunistic with a +9 takeaways differential.
They need positive breaks more than anything else to make the playoffs, and that needs to start against the Steelers.
Headhunting safety Brian Branch is on injured reserve.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Kerby Joseph, S | INJURED |
| Thomas Harper, S | INJURED |
| Kayode Awosika, G | INJURED |
| Amik Robertson, CB | INJURED |
| Brian Branch, S | INJURED |
| Christian Mahogany, G | INJURED |
For Week 16 Steelers-Lions, Detroit desperately needs this game. It would be a nice win for Pittsburgh, but it's not an absolute priority. If they make the playoffs, it will be as a division winner and they'll get a home Wild Card game. That's their position if they make it. And that likely comes down to Week 18 against the Ravens.
The Lions know what's at stake. Their playoff run starts now with three games left in the regular season.
They will win the game outright, but underdog Pittsburgh will keep the score within a touchdown.
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Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers +7
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