Published Dec 31, 11:52am ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Dec 31, 11:52am ET
Grok AI
Updated Dec 31, 11:52am ET
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| San Francisco 49ers | +1.5 (-110) |
| Seattle Seahawks | -110 |
The Seahawks are recognized as having one of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL. This goes back to the days of Pete Carroll, Marshawn Lynch, Richard Sherman, Russell Wilson, and a Super Bowl win. But for a catastrophic mistake at the goal line, they would have taken a second straight title.
The fans at Lumen Field are referred to as "The 12th Man," signifying an extra player on the field.
In his second year on the job, head coach Mike Macdonald has the Seahawks on the verge of a possible Super Bowl run. The bye and playing their playoff games at home could make the difference in the parity-laden NFC.
While Seattle took care of business in Week 17 by beating the Panthers 27-10, the key to their current position is the comeback win in overtime over the Rams on Thursday night in Week 16, a 38-37 barnburner.
Down 30-14 with just over 8 minutes remaining, they scored 16 points in less than 2 minutes to tie the game. In overtime, they traded touchdowns before a Sam Darnold 2-point conversion pass to Eric Saubert got them the walk-off win.
And there's nothing wrong with a little luck.
"Is this the craziest 2-point conversion EVER?"
— NFL (@NFL) December 19, 2025
The @Seahawks tie it up in a WILD way 😳
LARvsSEA on Prime Video
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/KwNtEIWVQ7
Their first game against the 49ers happened so long ago that it shouldn't be granted much weight. Seattle's defense is vulnerable to the pass, and that is where the 'Niners and Brock Purdy can tear them apart. Despite a run defense that is ranked 6th in the league in yards on the ground allowed per game, can they stop Christian McCaffrey?
Seattle is 8th in the NFL in team sacks, led by Byron Murphy, Pro Bowlers Leonard Williams and DeMarcus Lawrence, and Uchenna Nwosu.
Darnold has thrown 14 interceptions this season. As simple as it sounds, if the Seahawks are going to win, they cannot turn the ball over and must contain McCaffrey.
Wide receiver and returner Rashid Shaheed, who ran a punt back for a TD against the Rams, is questionable with a concussion.
ALSO SEE: Panthers vs Buccaneers | Week 18 Odds & NFL Pick (Jan 3)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Josh Jones, G | INJURED |
| Charles Cross, OT | INJURED |
| Coby Bryant, S | INJURED |
| Rashid Shaheed, WR | INJURED |
| Cody White, WR | INJURED |
The 49ers have won 6 straight and are suddenly a trendy pick to emerge from the NFC to make their third Super Bowl under head coach Kyle Shanahan. They have done this despite major injuries to key stars George Kittle, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and having lost QB Brock Purdy for a chunk of the season. Future Hall of Fame tackle Trent Williams is dealing with a hamstring issue.
Their 42-38 win over the Bears in Week 17 has put them in this position where they can nab a surprising #1 seed in the conference.
Purdy completed 24 of 33 passes for 303 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 pick. He also ran for 38 yards on 7 carries. The running is important given the toe issue that kept him out for two months.
McCaffrey ran for 140 yards on 23 carries and added another 41 yards receiving.
The offense is running on all cylinders. The defense? That's another matter. They would have lost had Bears QB Caleb Williams hit on a last-play pass.
It all came down to one final play last night
— NFL UK & Ireland (@NFLUKIRE) December 29, 2025
Caleb Williams left it all out on the field, but came up just short pic.twitter.com/iZgc6NRRMA
As great and stunning as the 'Niners' record is, it doesn't diminish their accomplishment to point out that they have had a creampuff schedule. They have beaten the Seahawks, Rams, and Bears. But lost every other game against playoff teams, including the Texans and Jaguars.
Offenses with a high-powered air attack have had their way with them. They are ranked 25th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game.
Expect an air show with both Darnold and Purdy coming out firing. The key may be which team has the fewest turnovers and can contain the rushing attack of the other.
Fullback Kyle Juszczyk is dealing with a hip issue. Trent Williams is questionable with a hamstring injury. Kittle has an ankle problem. McCaffrey has back stiffness.
Expect all to play.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Jacob Cowing, WR | INJURED |
| Keion White, DE | INJURED |
| Kyle Juszczyk, FB | INJURED |
| Trent Williams, OT | INJURED |
| Yetur Gross-Matos, DE | INJURED |
| Upton Stout, CB | INJURED |
| Ricky Pearsall, WR | INJURED |
| George Kittle, TE | INJURED |
| Christian McCaffrey, RB | INJURED |
| Fred Warner, LB | INJURED |
The NFL is getting exactly what it wants with Seahawks-49ers amounting to a playoff game with the #1 seed and the NFC West title at stake. The 'Niners have the pedigree. The Seahawks are the unexpected challenger to their status as one of the top teams in the league.
The determinative factor will be turnovers. Darnold has been slightly careless with the ball. If he can avoid troublesome interceptions, the Seahawks should be able to hold Purdy and Co. down enough for underdog Seattle to keep the game within 1.5 points and likely win it outright.
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Pick
Seattle Seahawks +1.5
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