Published Dec 31, 8:21pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Dec 31, 8:21pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Dec 31, 8:21pm ET
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| Atlanta Falcons | -3 (-120) |
| New Orleans Saints | +3 (+100) |
The math makes this a potential deciding game for who wins the NFC South, despite neither the Saints nor the Falcons being in contention.
Atlanta's win over the Rams on Monday night forces Tampa Bay to beat the Panthers on Saturday and then become members of "Who Dat Nation," rooting for the Saints. If the Falcons win, the Panthers will win the South independent of their outcome against the Bucs. This is based on Carolina having the best head-to-head record among the three 8-9 teams in the division.
BIJAN ROBINSON. 93 YARDS.
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) December 30, 2025
ESPN | NFL+ pic.twitter.com/fRjPbmd2kv
The Panthers can make the Saints-Falcons game irrelevant by beating the Bucs.
ALSO SEE: Panthers vs Buccaneers | Week 18 Odds & NFL Pick (Jan 3)
The main question surrounding the Falcons is whether owner Arthur Blank makes a change at GM and/or coach.
Terry Fontenot has been the team's GM since 2021 and has never had a winning season. But the team is an impressive array of talent at the skill positions with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, and Tyler Allegeier.
Raheem Morris went 8-9 in 2024 and his best-case scenario is to finish at 8-9 this season. It would be hard for Blank to justify firing Morris if the team ends with four straight wins. This is especially true after he gave Arthur Smith three years with identical records of 7-10 in each.
They need to deal with the QB situation this offseason. Cousins expects to be released. Penix is rehabbing from knee surgery.
The Falcons can run the ball effectively. The Saints are weak against the run, ranked 23rd in the NFL in defensive rushing yards allowed per game. Atlanta is also weak against the run.
They can only speculate on where they would currently be in the standings if they hadn't made the egregious mistake of losing to the Jets in Week 13.
Since Cousins took over, the team has gone 4-3. He's got an 86.8 passer rating, 9 TDs, and 4 picks.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Tyrone Wheatley Jr., OT | INJURED |
| Drake London, WR | INJURED |
| Mike Hughes, CB | INJURED |
| Brandon Dorlus, DT | INJURED |
| Mike Ford Jr., CB | INJURED |
| Josh Woods, LB | INJURED |
The Saints might have contributed more than anyone to the current muddle at the top of the division between the Bucs and the Panthers. They have beaten Carolina twice and Tampa Bay once. At this point, given how shakily the other teams in the division have played, the most dangerous team might actually be New Orleans.
That comes from rookie QB Tyler Shough (pronounced "Shuck") under center and getting a handle on head coach Kellen Moore's offense. Shough is old for a rookie, but his seven years in college, like John Blutarsky with a cannon arm, have prepared him to step right in and perform at the highest level.
He's a late riser in the 2025 NFL Rookie of the Year race with the primary competition being Tetairoa McMillan of the Panthers.
In 10 games (8 starts), Shough has a 92.1 passer rating, 2,125 yards passing, 9 TD passes, and 5 picks.
Tyler Shough has been on fire during the Saints' 4-game winning streak 🔥 https://t.co/C872FSseqD pic.twitter.com/7u2gFnMvfn
— PFF (@PFF) December 30, 2025
He's developed an immediate rapport with star receiver Chris Olave.
Their run of good play aside, it should not be forgotten that New Orleans started the season 2-10. Their run game has been weak, ranked 30th in the league in yards per game on the ground. They're 29th in points per game, but Shough has only been starting for less than half the season.
Atlanta is solid against the pass and has a very good pass rush with Brandon Dorlus and James Pearce, so New Orleans will need to establish a rushing attack to win.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Nathan Shepherd, DT | INJURED |
| Spencer Rattler, QB | INJURED |
| Dillon Radunz, G | INJURED |
| Demario Davis, LB | INJURED |
| Mason Tipton, WR | INJURED |
| Alvin Kamara, RB | INJURED |
| Jack Stoll, TE | INJURED |
| Chris Olave, WR | INJURED |
| Cesar Ruiz, G | INJURED |
| Zaire Mitchell-Paden, TE | INJURED |
| Bryan Bresee, DT | INJURED |
| Michael Davis, CB | INJURED |
For Week 18 Saints-Falcons, the game might not take on the importance it currently does before the Bucs and Panthers play their game. If the Panthers win, it won't matter except for New Orleans and Atlanta trying to have the best record they can and the other, above-listed factors, including Morris trying to save his job.
Regardless, both teams will try to win whether the world is watching or not.
The Falcons have been so unpredictable, it's hard to tell which team will show up. Is it the one that beat the Rams or the one that lost to the Jets and got blown off the field by the Dolphins?
New Orleans is playing with a lot of confidence, and they want Shough to win the Rookie of the Year.
The underdog Saints will keep the game within a field goal. The Panthers and Saints will already have determined whether that matters a day earlier.
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New Orleans Saints +3
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