Ravens vs Chiefs NFL Pick: 1-2 Preseason Super Bowl Teams Try to Get Right (Sep 28)

• In NFL Week 4 Ravens-Chiefs, two perennial Super Bowl contenders meet in an early-season matchup, trying to rebound from 1-2 starts
• Baltimore has had two rough losses that stemmed almost directly from Derrick Henry fumbles
• Kansas City got its first win in Week 3, a tougher-than-expected battle with the woeful Giants
• KC has won the last two meetings between the teams, one in the AFC Championship in 2023-24
• The Ravens are slight favorites on the road

Ravens Having Trouble Holding Late Leads

In their two losses, the Ravens had fourth-quarter leads that were frittered away largely because of Derrick Henry fumbles. The first was in the inexplicable opening week loss to the Bills. The second was on Monday night against the Lions.

This is nothing more than him not protecting the ball. It doesn’t matter how many 50-yard runs to the house he has if he’s fumbling late in games. A veteran and future Hall of Famer like Henry is going through a bad stretch with ball security, but he should be fine.

Had the Ravens maintained possession in Weeks 1 and 3, they would be 3-0 right now instead of 1-2.

While Henry’s fumbles are an issue, a bigger concern is that their defense is getting shredded. They gave up 41 to the Bills and 38 to the Lions in their two losses. They held the Browns to 17 points, but that is no consolation.

Detroit’s David Montgomery ran for 151 yards on 12 carries and rushed for 2 TDs. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 67 on 22 carries and also scored 2 TDs. Jared Goff completed 20 of 28 passes for 202 yards and a TD pass to Amon-Ra St. Brown.

The game would not have been as close as it was had Lamar Jackson not hit Mark Andrews for a TD with 29 seconds left.

Jackson was 21 for 27 and 288 yards with 3 TD passes. Andrews caught 6 for 91 yards and 2 TDs. Rashod Bateman caught 5 for 63 and a TD.

Baltimore’s pass defense is next-to-last in the league in yards allowed. They’re 30th in rushing yards allowed. This is not good enough to get to a Super Bowl. It might not even be good enough to make the playoffs.

The Chiefs Escaped the East With a Much-Needed Win

The 2025 season has been even rougher on the Chiefs than it’s been on the Ravens. They lost their first two games to the Chargers and Eagles. Then, against the Giants, the game was still in doubt until six minutes remained in the game when Kareem Hunt scored on a 1-yard run. If the Giants’ offense could get the ball downfield, the Chiefs could easily be 0-3 now.

Unheralded Tyquan Thornton was a key to the victory.

The entire Chiefs roster looks like it’s sleepwalking through the early part of the season. They are clearly feeling the wear from age and extra games with late postseason runs every year. The question is whether they can get their wind early enough to avoid a plummet. Last season, they were playing similarly, but managed to win the games. This year, it has been the opposite.

Against the Giants, Patrick Mahomes was good enough, completing 22 of 37 passes for 224 yards and a TD pass. Isiah Pacheco has not been effective since returning from a leg injury late last season.

KC is middle of the pack in just about every area, offensively and defensively. If they’re going to beat the Ravens, Mahomes needs to get the ball downfield, and they must have the threat of the run.

It’s difficult to see the Chiefs with their limited wide receiving corps and lack of a running game winning a shootout with the Ravens.

Ravens vs Chiefs Pick

For Week 4 Ravens Chiefs, both teams need this victory to eliminate the early-season negativity surrounding them. Baltimore’s superstar running back is being careless with the ball, and their defense can’t stop anyone. Kansas City is lethargic and looks apathetic.

Each team knows that this is an important early-season game. Based on the first three weeks, the Ravens will be able to score on the Chiefs. Despite Baltimore’s defensive woes, it’s difficult to see KC keeping up with them.

The Ravens should win outright.