Published Oct 8, 12:38pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Oct 8, 12:38pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Oct 8, 12:38pm ET
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The Patriots finally have their long-term replacement for Tom Brady, and his name is Drake Maye.
The win over the Bills cemented his place as a rising superstar, and he’s on his way to MVP consideration at season’s end. Maye led his team to a 23-20 win in Buffalo, completing 22 of 30 passes for 273 yards. This was the fourth consecutive game in which his passer rating surpassed 101.1. Overall, he has a 107.8 passer rating for 2025.
His key completion to Stefon Diggs was a thing of beauty.
THIS ANGLE OF DRAKE MAYE'S THROW 😍
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) October 6, 2025
What a DIME to Diggs. pic.twitter.com/tuKXVIG0Jf
Overall, the Pats are taking to head coach Mike Vrabel’s leadership and playing similarly to how they played during the glory days of Bill Belichick and Brady. They’re young and still in the process of building, but they are coming along faster than anticipated.
That is not to suggest they’re anywhere close to being a finished product. They are 27th in the league in rushing yards per game and 26th in defensive passing yards per game. Part of the poor pass defense was due to the absence of Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is back, but on a “pitch count” because of his balky hamstring.
Fumbling remains a problem with running back Rhamondre Stevenson committing his third of the season.
Diggs had a huge game in his return to Buffalo, catching 10 balls for 146 yards.
They held James Cook to 49 yards rushing and largely corralled Josh Allen.
The Saints are obviously not the Bills, but QB Spencer Rattler can get the ball deep, and New Orleans has weapons Vrabel must mitigate.
The Giants are objectively terrible, but they were coming off an impressive Week 4 win over the playoff-contending Chargers.
Early in the game, the Giants jumped out to a 14-3 lead, and it looked like another loss for New Orleans. However, trailing 14-6, Rattler connected with Rashid Shaheed on an 87-yard TD pass.
SPENCER RATTLER. RASHID SHAHEED. 87 YARDS.
— NFL (@NFL) October 5, 2025
NYGvsNO on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/IQCgJOs010
From there, Blake Grupe kicked two field goals to give the Saints a 19-14 lead. An 86-yard fumble return by Jordan Howden early in the 4th quarter sealed the deal on a 26-14 win.
The Saints’ defense held New York rookie QB Jaxson Dart to 202 yards passing, picked him off twice, and forced a fumble.
Rattler has been understatedly good, particularly since New Orleans drafted Tyler Shough in the 2nd round of the 2025 NFL Draft and is likely Moore’s preference as the long-term QB option.
The second-year man out of South Carolina has 6 TD passes against 1 pick and a 90.4 passer rating. He’s also proven himself elusive, only being sacked 9 times. The Saints are 1-4, but that’s not because of Rattler, and they might have their long-term guy.
The Saints are +5 in takeaway differential, good for 5th in the league. They’re near the bottom in offensive passing yards per game and 14th in rushing. On defense, they have been solid against the pass (9th in passing yards against) and 20th against the rush.
In short, they’re not as bad as their record indicates.
For Patriots-Saints Week 6, Vrabel will do his best to keep the Pats even-keeled despite the sudden attention they are getting nationally and the perception that they are coming along faster than anticipated. He’ll make sure they don’t have a letdown.
The Saints had a very positive showing in Week 5 by beating the Giants. Rattler cannot be discounted. Given how good New Orleans has been in forcing turnovers, it is important to the Pats not to put the ball on the ground or for Maye to get rambunctious with aggressive passes. He’s only thrown 2 picks this season and is good with his decision-making.
The Pats are favored by 3.5 on the road and will win and cover the spread.
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New England Patriots -3.5
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