Published Dec 26, 10:19pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Dec 26, 10:19pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Dec 26, 10:19pm ET
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| New York Jets | +13.5 (-110) |
| New England Patriots | -13.5 (-110) |
It's the convoluted time of year in the NFL where math becomes about as important as reading defenses and the injury report. For the Patriots, the Bills' comeback win in Week 15 took destiny out of their hands. Still, they are reasonably assured of winning the AFC East and have a good chance of taking the #1 seed in the AFC. After the Jets, they host the Dolphins, who are also checked out.
If they win their final two games, it doesn't matter what the Bills do. The Pats will be the AFC East champs for the first time since 2019. Then they will need the Chargers to beat the Broncos in Week 18 to take the top seed and secure home-field advantage throughout the AFC bracket.
Of course, first they need to beat the Jets.
On paper, this is a mismatch.
In reality, this is a mismatch.
The only danger in a normal world would be the Pats taking the Jets lightly and looking past them. But head coach Mike Vrabel will not allow that.
In Week 16's win over the Ravens, New England trailed 24-13 with less than 13 minutes to go. But Drake Maye hit Kyle Williams for a 37-yard score. Then, with just over 2 minutes left, Rhamondre Stevenson scored on a 21-yard run.
DRAKE MAYE TO KYLE WILLIAMS.
— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2025
NEvsBAL on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/ToEf565k29
The Jets do not force turnovers and cannot stop the run. They are playing a rookie QB, Brady Cook. New England will try to put this game out of reach as quickly as possible.
ALSO SEE: Buccaneers vs Dolphins | Week 17 Odds & NFL Pick (Dec 28)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Charles Woods, CB | INJURED |
| TreVeyon Henderson, RB | INJURED |
| Jared Wilson, G | INJURED |
| Khyiris Tonga, DT | INJURED |
| Robert Spillane, LB | INJURED |
| Milton Williams, DE | INJURED |
| Harold Landry III, LB | INJURED |
| Kayshon Boutte, WR | INJURED |
| Mack Hollins, WR | INJURED |
| DeMario Douglas, WR | INJURED |
| Joshua Farmer, DT | INJURED |
Over the past three games since the Jets' upset win over the Falcons, they have been outscored 111-36 in losses to the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Saints.
Jets Tried a Play on 4th Down and Instead it Gets PICKED OFF by Jonas Sanker! 💥 pic.twitter.com/RGhxhHT2mf
— Saints Happy Hour Podcast (@SaintsHappyHour) December 21, 2025
They're playing an unheralded rookie QB in Cook. They traded away the heart of their defense at the deadline. So it's thoroughly understandable that they're getting their brains beaten in.
Despite that, it must sting owner Woody Johnson to see the Patriots, the Jets' longtime tormentor, having turned their franchise around after two terrible seasons and doing so without Bill Belichick or Tom Brady. They have a young coach in Vrabel and a young QB in Maye, already a star.
The Jets are in the middle of their latest reboot and do not have a QB.
For them, the only suspenseful moment for the rest of the season will be whether they manage to get through it without logging one interception. That might be harder to do than winning a Super Bowl.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Xavier Newman, G | INJURED |
| Jay Tufele, DT | INJURED |
| Kiko Mauigoa, LB | INJURED |
| Will McDonald IV, DE | INJURED |
| Mason Taylor, TE | INJURED |
| Justin Fields, QB | INJURED |
In Week 17 Patriots-Jets, it's a familiar script. New England is preparing for the playoffs, trying to win the division and get the top seed in the AFC. The Jets are just trying to get another disastrous season over with.
It has 45-3 Patriots written all over it.
New England will win and wait for the Bills' results to see if they win the division on Sunday or need to wait another week against Miami.
The Patriots will cover the heavy spread on the road.
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Pick
New England Patriots -13.5
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