Published Nov 6, 8:51pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Nov 6, 8:51pm ET
Grok AI
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| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2.5 (-116) |
| New England Patriots | +2.5 (-104) |
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel will make sure his players do not look beyond this Sunday in Tampa. But it's difficult not to envision a win as underdogs against a tough team catapulting them to the AFC East title.
Their subsequent three games are against the Jets, Bengals, and Giants. They will be heavily favored in all. Then they host the Bills with the real possibility of being 11-2.
It's looking far ahead, but thinking like this was a delusion before the season. Not anymore.
New England won a tough game with the Falcons in Week 9, 24-23. Drake Maye completed 19 of 29 passes for 259 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 interception.
This throw from Drake Maye to Stefon Diggs was just ridiculous. He makes these kind of throws multiple times per game. pic.twitter.com/gfh9TV2JWK
— Pats-Planet.com 🪐 (@patsplanetmedia) November 6, 2025
The Patriots were lucky with a missed extra point allowing them to retain the lead and eventually run out the clock. But there's nothing wrong with being lucky.
Apart from sending defensive back Kyle Dugger to the Steelers, the Patriots were quiet at the trade deadline.
New England has stuffed the run this season, ranked 1st in defensive rushing yards allowed per game. Their takeaway differential is at zero. They are vulnerable to the pass, ranked 19th in defensive passing yards per game.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Marte Mapu, LB | INJURED |
| Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | INJURED |
| Joshua Farmer, DT | INJURED |
| Garrett Bradbury, C | INJURED |
| Kayshon Boutte, WR | INJURED |
| Christian Gonzalez, CB | INJURED |
| Christian Ellis, LB | INJURED |
The Bucs had a much-needed bye week after a 23-3 win over the Saints. They are still without star wide receiver Mike Evans, on injured reserve with a broken collarbone. Chris Godwin, Jr., Bucky Irving, and Hassan Reddick have been banged up.
QB Baker Mayfield had a tough outing against New Orleans, limited to 152 yards through the air. But the Bucs' defense carried them through sacking, Saints' QBs five times. Anthony Nelson had a short pick-6.
Oh man...
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 26, 2025
The Saints defense had an incredible goal line stand on 4th down... But the Bucs end up scoring soon after on the pick 6! 😬
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/vODfu8zyA2
Tampa is 7th in the league in fewest yards rushing per game. They are vulnerable to the pass, ranked 22nd. They are opportunistic with a +7 takeaway differential. Mayfield has been willing the team to victories. Both he and his counterpart Maye are considered top contenders for the NFL MVP.
Tampa is holding off the upstart Panthers, who they will play in two of the final three games of the regular season.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Mike Evans, WR | INJURED |
| Ben Bredeson, G | INJURED |
| Chris Godwin, Jr., WR | INJURED |
| Bucky Irving, RB | INJURED |
| Luke Goedeke, OT | INJURED |
| Hassan Reddick, LB | INJURED |
| Markees Watts, LB | INJURED |
As the Patriots and Buccaneers meet in Week 10, it is an important game for both teams. If the Pats take this game, they have a weak schedule ahead of their second encounter with the Bills. Tampa needs to win to maintain its lead in the NFC South.
Expect a low-scoring battle with Tampa shutting down Maye's downfield passing and Mayfield trying to push the ball deep.
Tampa will eek out a win at home and cover the spread.
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Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
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