Published Dec 30, 8:38pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Dec 30, 8:38pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Dec 30, 8:38pm ET
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| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2.5 (-115) |
| Carolina Panthers | +2.5 (-105) |
First and foremost, this is not a win-and-in scenario.
Because the Falcons beat the Rams on Monday night, a Bucs win over the Panthers on Saturday and then a Falcons win over the Saints on Sunday would mean that Tampa, Carolina, and Atlanta would have 8-9 records. Carolina would then be the division champs even if they lose to Tampa because they have the best head-to-head record.
So, if the Panthers win or tie against the Bucs or the Falcons beat the Saints, the Panthers are NFC South champs.
For the Bucs, they need to win and have the Falcons either lose or tie with the Saints.
Bryce Young says he didn’t even know that if Atlanta beats New Orleans Sunday the Panthers are in the playoffs. Only focused on the Bucs game. pic.twitter.com/OVcSpHcFkr
— Scott Fowler (@scott_fowler) December 30, 2025
In the loss to the Seahawks, Panthers QB Bryce Young was 14 of 24 for 54 yards and 1 interception. Carolina couldn't run the ball either, with Rico Dowdle limited to 59 yards and Chuba Hubbard adding 12 yards.
The defense generally did its job, holding Sam Darnold to 147 yards passing. The game was tight until just over 5 minutes remained and Seattle scored 10 unanswered points.
Still, this kind of performance will probably not cut it against the Bucs. It's only "probably" because the Bucs haven't been particularly good or opportunistic in their own right over the past two months.
For the Panthers, a division title would be a huge step in the right direction after a 5-12 season in 2024. But obviously, they would like to win and make it on their own rather than back in despite it being the same result.
ALSO SEE: Browns vs Bengals | Week 18 Odds & NFL Pick (Jan 4)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Robert Hunt, G | INJURED |
| Claudin Cherelus, LB | INJURED |
| Krys Barnes, LB | INJURED |
| Rico Dowdle, RB | INJURED |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders, TE | INJURED |
| Robert Rochell, CB | INJURED |
| David Moore, WR | INJURED |
| Trevin Wallace, LB | INJURED |
The Bucs have suffered a crashing fall after their 6-2 start that included wins over the Texans, Seahawks, and 49ers. Their one win since then has been over the horrid Cardinals. Their Week 17 loss to the Dolphins was especially painful and put them in this position, needing to win and then morph into the biggest Saints fans on the planet outside of Louisiana.
The early-season MVP talk surrounding QB Baker Mayfield has disappeared. His numbers for the season are solid with 25 TD passes against 10 picks, and a passer rating of 90.3.
Against Miami, however, he completed 33 of 44 passes for 346 yards and 2 TDs. But he was picked off twice, including a devastating interception by Ashtyn Davis in the 4th quarter with Tampa down 20-10 and deep in Dolphins territory.
Ashtyn Davis INTERCEPTS Baker Mayfield 🙌
— Dolphins Nation (@DolphinNationCP) December 28, 2025
Dolphins ball as they lead by 10 over the Bucs with under 7 minutes remaining!pic.twitter.com/BclAJGEkTI
Mayfield has been limited in practice with knee and shoulder injuries. He's been playing hurt for much of the season. But he's going to play against the Panthers.
Star tackle Tristan Wirfs is listed as questionable.
Dropping to 7-10 after a 6-2 start could put everything on the table, including placing head coach Todd Bowles' job in jeopardy. The team did not respond to Bowles' uncharacteristically profane response to how his team was playing several weeks ago. And as much of a likable coach Bowles is, if the team isn't listening, then perhaps a change will be necessary.
Even making the playoffs might not be enough if they get blasted out in the Wild Card.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield, QB | INJURED |
| Benjamin Morrison, CB | INJURED |
| Luke Goedeke, OT | INJURED |
| Tristan Wirfs, OT | INJURED |
| Anthony Nelson, LB | INJURED |
| Jamel Dean, CB | INJURED |
| Calijah Kancey, DT | INJURED |
The Panthers-Bucs Week 18 matchup is for the NFC South title...with the caveat of the Saints-Falcons game being the potential difference-maker.
This would be an even bigger mess if the Falcons hadn't lost to the Jets.
But neither team can worry about that. They need to win this game.
The Bucs are fading and the Panthers are probably not ready to be a true contender. With Tampa's injuries and how badly things have gone for them since that 6-2 start, it's hard to imagine them righting the ship and mustering a win over up-and-coming Carolina. A subtext is that the Panthers coach, Dave Canales, was the Bucs' offensive coordinator when Mayfield resurrected his career.
Expect a tight game with slight underdog Carolina keeping the game within 2.5 points.
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Pick
Carolina Panthers +2.5
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