Published Dec 24, 10:57am ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Dec 24, 10:57am ET
Grok AI
Updated Dec 24, 10:57am ET
|
|
|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | +7.5 (-115) |
| Detroit Lions | -7.5 (-105) |
The Lions need to win their final two games while the Packers lose their final two.
Detroit plays the Vikings and Bears. Green Bay plays the Ravens and Vikings. So it's not insane to think this could happen.
Head coach Dan Campbell did not sugarcoat the Lions' performance in his postgame press conference.
Dan Campbell on chaotic finish to Lions' loss to Steelers: "We have nobody to blame but ourselves. It's on us."https://t.co/dVFx0PN8D7 pic.twitter.com/MlcurgHWP7
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) December 22, 2025
In the Week 16 loss to the Steelers, the Lions had no answers for Pittsburgh's rushing attack. Jaylen Warren ran for 143 yards on 14 carries. Kenneth Gainwell added 50 on 9 carries. Aaron Rodgers was 27 for 41 with 266 yards passing and a TD.
The game ended on a controversial offensive pass interference call on Amon-Ra St. Brown, but this was another in a long line of just misses the Lions have endured over the past three seasons since they rose to prominence as Super Bowl contenders under Campbell.
pic.twitter.com/AWApyNImWQ
— The Goal Line Grind (@theGLgrind) December 22, 2025
What a WILD ending in the Lions/Steelers game.
An OPI from ARSB negated what was almost an incredible touchdown for Detroit.
Instead, it'll go down as another disappointing loss.
Pittsburgh held Jahmyr Gibbs to 2 yards rushing on 7 carries. He did catch 7 balls for 66 yards.
Regardless of the Lions' failures this season, there is no excuse for them if they don't run the Vikings and backup QB Max Brosmer off the field.
ALSO SEE: Broncos vs Chiefs | Christmas Night Odds & NFL Pick (Dec 25)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Marcus Davenport, DE | INJURED |
| Tom Kennedy, WR | INJURED |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | INJURED |
| David Montgomery, RB | INJURED |
| Trystan Colon, C | INJURED |
| Amik Robertson, CB | INJURED |
| Al-Quadin Muhammad, LB | INJURED |
| Alim McNeill, DT | INJURED |
| Avonte Maddox, CB | INJURED |
| Christian Mahogany, G | INJURED |
| Taylor Decker, OT | INJURED |
With three straight wins and improved play from QB J.J. McCarthy (which wasn't particularly difficult given how atrociously he started), the Vikings' season could end respectably.
Obviously, it won't be as good as 2024's 14-3 showing. Nor does it look very good that the QB they let walk in favor of McCarthy, Sam Darnold, has won 12 games for the Seahawks. But no matter how they finish the season, there is an argument to say they should move forward with minimal substantive changes.
McCarthy will miss the game against the Lions with a hairline fracture in his throwing hand, so the rookie Brosmer will take the start.
Brosmer's sole start this season against Darnold's Seahawks in Week 13 was perhaps the nadir of Minnesota's season in one full of lows. Seattle won 26-0 and Brosmer completed 19 of 30 passes for 126 yards and was picked off 4 times, including an inexplicable throw that Ernest Jones returned for an 85-yard pick-6.
Oh no, Max Brosmer...
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) November 30, 2025
Worst pick six ever?
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/IYblvAE0ik
Before McCarthy injured his hand, he'd had three straight solid performances, completing 40 of 61 passes for 5 TD passes, 2 rushing TDs, and 2 picks. The jury remains out on him and that will be the case until he puts together an extended run of competent play and remains healthy, but there is some enthusiasm that he could be what head coach Kevin O'Connell thought they were getting when they drafted him and let Darnold walk.
Minnesota's entire offense was negatively affected by McCarthy, Brosmer, and Carson Wentz's poor play. They are -14 in takeaway differential, next-to-last in the NFL. They have not run the ball effectively, ranked 25th in rushing yards per game. The pass defense has been very good, ranked 3rd in the league in passing yards allowed per game. They struggle vs the run, ranked 24th in yards per game.
To exemplify the offensive challenges they have faced, star wide receiver Justin Jefferson will have the fewest catches, yards, and TDs in his career for a full season and it won't be close.
Both primary backs, Aaron Jones Sr. and Jordan Mason, are listed as questionable.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy, QB | INJURED |
| Brian O'Neill, OT | INJURED |
| Javon Hargrave, DT | INJURED |
| T.J. Hockenson, TE | INJURED |
| Aaron Jones Sr., RB | INJURED |
| Jordan Mason, RB | INJURED |
| Ryan Kelly, C | INJURED |
| Eric Wilson, LB | INJURED |
For the Lions-Vikings Christmas meeting on Netflix, the game has significant meaning for Detroit and "spoiler" importance for Minnesota.
The Lions' playoff odds are long, but straightforward and relatively easy to see coming to pass. Expect Gibbs to receive a heavy workload to take advantage of the Vikings' poor rush defense. Jared Goff has had another excellent season independent of team inconsistency in the win column.
Minnesota has been playing hard, but Brosmer is inexperienced and was terrible in his first start.
Detroit should run Minnesota off the field and easily cover the spread as road favorites.
|
Pick
Detroit Lions -7.5
|
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000
|
