Published Dec 26, 11:00am ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Dec 26, 11:00am ET
Grok AI
Updated Dec 26, 11:00am ET
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| Indianapolis Colts | +6.5 (-115) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -6.5 (-105) |
The Jaguars are on the verge of a complete turnaround from a 4-13 season in 2024 to the AFC South title. They will win the division this weekend if the Texans lose to the Chargers and they beat the Colts.
In addition, they still have a chance to get the #1 seed in the conference for the playoffs. If they win their final two games and the Patriots and Broncos split their final two, the Jags will have home-field throughout the AFC bracket.
The division title is essentially sealed. Jacksonville hosts the woeful Titans in Week 18.
Head coach Liam Coen has not only turned the Jags' fortunes around and is getting a superior performance from QB Trevor Lawrence, but he's shown an impressive fire several times.
First, there was his confrontation with 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh.
“Keep my name out of your mouth,”
— BrentDanStuartMarcelAlivia (@ActionSportsJax) September 29, 2025
Liam Coen and Robert Saleh exchange after Jaguars win. Saleh used the phrase “legal sign stealing” in news conference last week in reference to Coen. pic.twitter.com/yYcjm1oHIP
Then there was Coen's none-too-subtle shot at Broncos head coach Sean Payton after Payton called the Jags a "smaller market."
#Jaguars HC Liam Coen after beating Denver: "A small market team like us can come into Mile High and get it done."
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) December 22, 2025
Earlier week, Broncos HC Sean Payton said: “It’s a smaller market but you see a real good team.”pic.twitter.com/iO4oNzxJTf
Out of context, Payton could claim he made a harmless remark. But given that the Denver head coach comes out of the Bill Parcells school of tactical bullying, it was a message. Coen and the Jags shoved it in his face.
Lawrence is forcing his way into the outskirts of the MVP conversation. He won't win it, but after an up-and-down career with a revolving door of head coaches, coordinators, and systems, Lawrence has 26 TD passes and 7 rushing TDs against 11 picks. He has a 60.0 completion percentage and has thrown for nearly 3,500 yards. Perhaps most importantly, he's stayed healthy.
The Jags' defense is vulnerable to the pass, ranked 24th in defensive passing yards allowed per game. They are 1st against the run. With the Rivers mania, expect the Colts to come out firing.
The Jags have been opportunistic with a +12 takeaway differential.
ALSO SEE: Texans vs Chargers | Week 17 Odds & NFL Pick (Dec 27)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Bhayshul Tuten, RB | INJURED |
| Jourdan Lewis, CB | INJURED |
| Greg Newsome II, CB | INJURED |
| Tim Patrick, WR | INJURED |
| Ezra Cleveland, G | INJURED |
| Montaric Brown, CB | INJURED |
| Danny Striggow, DE | INJURED |
| Robert Hainsey, C | INJURED |
Technically, the Colts have not yet been eliminated from playoff contention. But it would take a Herculean effort for them to beat the Jags and Texans in consecutive weeks, and have the Texans lose to the Chargers on Saturday. If this happens, Indianapolis would leapfrog Houston.
Indy has not quit and the Rivers story is viral.
Still, there are questions as to what late-owner Jim Irsay's daughters plan on doing with the football ops after the season. CEO Carlie Irsay-Gordon has her notebook on the sidelines.
Colts owner/CEO Carlie Irsay-Gordon is locked in from the sidelines pic.twitter.com/ShubRHh1Qs
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 21, 2025
What that means for GM Chris Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen is a mystery.
Still, Rivers put on a show in the Colts' 48-27 loss to the 49ers, not just for a grandfather who turned 44 a couple of weeks ago, but for a QB in general.
He completed 23 for 35 passes with 277 yards, 2 TDs, and a late-game pick-6. Of course, it would be a great story if the Colts could beat Jacksonville while the Texans lose to LA, making the Colts-Texans matchup in Week 18 a playoff game, but it is unlikely to happen.
Rivers, however, deserves props.
Rest assured, teams will be asking him this offseason if he still wants to play.
Maybe he does.
Philip Rivers is awesome 😂 pic.twitter.com/0wXLhavGXP
— The Colts Cast (@TheColtsCast) December 23, 2025
The Colts are battered by injuries, having lost Jones and Sauce Gardner. Star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner played against San Francisco after being out since Week 9.
Looking at the Colts' team-centric stats is meaningless amid the injuries and how they've collapsed.
Rivers will get the chance to put up some numbers against the Jags' secondary.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Sauce Gardner, CB | INJURED |
| Buddy Johnson, LB | INJURED |
| Drew Ogletree, TE | INJURED |
| Tyler Goodson, RB | INJURED |
| Anthony Gould, WR | INJURED |
| DeForest Buckner, DT | INJURED |
| Daniel Jones, QB | INJURED |
| Anthony Richardson, QB | INJURED |
| Ashton Dulin, WR | INJURED |
In Week 17 Jaguars-Colts, both teams need the victory. The Jags have an outside shot at an unexpected rise from the depths in 2024 to home-field advantage in the playoffs for 2025. The Colts need to win out and get substantial help to make the playoffs.
Rivers has been amazing given the circumstances. The Jags' secondary is vulnerable, so Rivers should accumulate yards and points. The Colts' defense is battered. Lawrence will tear them apart just as Brock Purdy did in Week 16.
Jacksonville will cover the spread and, depending on the Texans' results, could win the division with a victory.
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Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5
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