Published Oct 29, 6:57pm EDT by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Oct 29, 6:57pm EDT
Grok AI
Updated Oct 29, 6:57pm EDT
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| New England Patriots | -5 (-115) |
| Atlanta Falcons | +5 (-105) |
It's not an exaggeration to say that if the Falcons continue their downward trajectory that head coach Raheem Morris and his staff and perhaps GM Terry Fontenot could be in trouble.
Since they were 6-3 after 9 games in 2024, they have won 5 of their 15 games. They have plenty of talent on their roster, but it's not clicking.
Their Week 8 loss to the Dolphins is a case in point as to how the Falcons are underachieving. Miami entered the game with a 1-6 record and a waiting game of when their head coach, Mike McDaniel, was going to be fired. But Tua Tagovailoa completed 20 of 26 passes for 205 yards and 4 TDs in the Dolphins' 34-10 victory.
📊 Tua Tagovailoa vs. Atlanta Falcons:
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) October 27, 2025
➖ 20/26 passing
➖ 205 passing yards
➖ 4 passing touchdowns
➖ 0 turnovers
➖ 138.6 passer rating
➖ 82.6 PFF overall grade
(@MiamiDolphins) #PhinsUp pic.twitter.com/THQlJxblXq
Michael Penix was out for the Falcons with a bone bruise on his knee. Highly-paid backup Kirk Cousins completed 21 of 31 passes for 173 yards, but the Falcons could not muster an offense. Bijan Robinson was limited to 25 yards on the ground. Tyler Allgeier has hip and knee injuries and had 4 carries for 4 yards.
Atlanta's defense could not stop Miami despite its defense allowing the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL. They had 8 penalties for 76 yards.
Penix is expected to play against the Pats.
New England has won 5 straight. The last two games over the Titans and Browns were blowouts by a combined score of 63-26. They are in 1st place, one-half game ahead of the Bills, who they've already beaten once this season.
Understandably, the focus is on 23-year-old, second-year QB Drake Maye. Maye's name is being mentioned in the MVP conversation, his odds (+325) to win the award behind only Patrick Mahomes (+145).
Maye leads the NFL with a 75.2 completion percentage. He's thrown 15 TDs against 3 picks. He's also rushed for 250 yards. The only game this season in which his passer rating was less than triple digits was in the opening week loss to the Raiders.
Drake Maye against the No. 1-ranked defense in the NFL: 18 of 24 for 282 yards, three touchdowns and another 50 rushing. pic.twitter.com/5f5Q5zOfdl
— Tyler Dunne (@TyDunne) October 26, 2025
They have a two-headed rushing attack with Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. Stevenson's fumbling issues have subsided. They have a number 1 receiving threat in Stefon Diggs, but they might need to boost their receiving corps at the trade deadline.
Their pass defense has improved since Christian Gonzalez returned, and they're ranked 19th in passing yards allowed per game. They stuff the run, ranked 2nd.
Head coach Mike Vrabel has them playing the Patriots' style of play from the Belichick/Brady years.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Michael Penix, ATL | INJURED |
| Tyler Allgeier, ATL | INJURED |
| Drake London, ATL | INJURED |
| Darnell Mooney, ATL | INJURED |
| Kyle Pitts, ATL | INJURED |
| Jalon Walker, ATL | INJURED |
| Zach Harrison, ATL | INJURED |
| Billy Bowman Jr., ATL | INJURED |
| Tyrone Wheatley Jr., ATL | INJURED |
| Jessie Bates III, ATL | INJURED |
| Stefon Diggs, NE | INJURED |
| Rhamondre Stevenson, NE | INJURED |
| Garrett Bradbury, ATL | INJURED |
| Khyiris Tonga, NE | INJURED |
For the Week 9 Falcons-Patriots matchup, Atlanta is injury-riddled and undisciplined. They are teetering on falling out of playoff contention and possibly costing their head coach his job at the end of the season. New England has overcome every obstacle so far this season, and Vrabel has kept them focused.
Atlanta's only chance is if New England looks past them and Maye has an uncharacteristically poor performance. The Pats will win this game at home and cover the 5-point spread to get to 7-2.
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Pick
New England Patriots -5
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