Published Dec 8, 6:13pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Dec 8, 6:13pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Dec 8, 6:58pm ET
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| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -4.5 (-106) |
| Atlanta Falcons | +4.5 (-114) |
In Week 6, the Falcons beat the Bills 24-14 and were sitting at 3-2. Since then, they have lost 7 of 8. The Seahawks manhandled them in Week 14, a non-competitive 37-9 loss.
The game was tied at halftime, but Seattle took the lead when Rashid Shaheed returned the second-half kickoff 100 yards for a TD.
RASHID SHAHEED TAKES THE KICK RETURN 100 YARDS ALL THE WAY
— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2025
SEAvsATL on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/rdIB9a1qK6
Kirk Cousins completed 15 of 30 passes for 162 yards. The Seahawks picked him off twice.
Even after starting QB Michael Penix injured his knee, the team has too much talent to be playing as poorly as it is. Cousins might not have much left in the tank, but the Falcons are not moving the ball with any consistency despite having Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in the backfield, and Drake London and Kyle Pitts catching passes.
On defense, they have recorded 43 sacks and have a solid secondary.
That underachievement generally falls on the coaching staff, but there is plenty of blame to go around, particularly the decision to give all that money to Cousins, only to draft Penix and then bench Cousins in his first season with the team.
They are vulnerable to the rush, ranked 25th in the league in defensive rushing yards per game. They are in the top 10 in the league in defensive yards per game against the pass.
ALSO SEE: Eagles vs Chargers Week 14 Odds & NFL Pick (Dec 8)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Tyrone Wheatley Jr., OT | INJURED |
| Drake London, WR | INJURED |
| Brandon Dorlus, DT | INJURED |
After a 6-2 start, the Bucs have lost 4 of 5. They had a spate of injuries and a tough schedule, so there was something of an excuse for their cold stretch...until they hosted the 2-10 Saints in Week 14 and lost 24-20.
New Orleans' defense held Bucs QB Baker Mayfield to 122 yards passing, allowed 1 TD, and picked him off once.
It's bizarre to see Baker Mayfield make as many unforced errors as he did against the Saints.
— Henry McKenna (@henrycmckenna) December 8, 2025
Normally so precise... but not on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/PT54SqmKPv
Still, the Bucs had a chance to pull out a late-game win as Mayfield got the ball at his 20 with 1:48 remaining. He threw two incomplete passes, rushed for 6 yards, then threw a 4th-down incompletion, turning the ball over on downs to the Saints. Tyler Shough kneeled twice to close it out.
As bad as things have gone for Tampa in the past five games, they are still in a good position to win the NFC South.
But they need to beat the Falcons first. Two of their final three games are against Carolina. Those games will decide the division.
Star receiver Mike Evans, out with a broken collarbone, is pushing to get back for the Falcons. Tackle Christian Wirfs missed the game against New Orleans with an oblique injury.
The Bucs are vulnerable to the pass. They are ranked 27th in the league in defensive passing yards per game. They're not very good against the run either, ranked 20th.
Fortunately for them, Cousins cannot get the ball downfield anymore.
The Bucs know what's at stake, and with a reeling team coming into Tampa, this is a great opportunity to get to 8-6 and rest for 10 days before heading to Carolina.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Christian Izien, S | INJURED |
| SirVocea Dennis, LB | INJURED |
| Mike Evans, WR | INJURED |
| Tristan Wirfs, OT | INJURED |
In Week 15 Falcons-Buccaneers, Atlanta could take some solace in a disappointing (to say the least) season by going on the road and severely denting Tampa's playoff hopes. If the Bucs lose, their playoff journey would start against the Panthers with three games left in the regular season.
Those 10 days of rest in advance of that showdown are an irresistible carrot dangled in front of the Bucs. Although the Falcons can run the ball and the Bucs are vulnerable to the run, Tampa can sell out in forcing Cousins to try to get the ball deep. All Mayfield needs to do is mitigate mistakes and get a lead. Once that happens, Atlanta will fold. Tampa will cover the 4.5-point spread.
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Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5
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