Published Dec 12, 8:21pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Dec 12, 8:21pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Dec 12, 8:48pm ET
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| Pittsburgh Steelers | -3 (-115) |
| Miami Dolphins | +3 (-105) |
It's hard to tell which would be the bigger borderline miracle: the Dolphins making the playoffs or head coach Mike McDaniel saving his job after he was as good as fired a month ago.
Maybe it's a combination of both.
Regardless, if Miami manages to beat the Steelers in the cold weather in Pittsburgh, they have a clear path to run the table. They host the Bengals and the Buccaneers and finish the regular season by traveling to New England to play the Patriots.
Cincinnati's scoring prowess is surpassed only by its skill at giving up even more points. Tampa Bay is falling apart. And New England might have clinched everything it can possibly clinch by the time the final game rolls around.
In short, the circumstances are in place for the Dolphins to pull this off.
But can they?
QB Tua Tagovailoa's record in cold weather is terrible. According to NFL.com, he's never won a game with the temperature below 40 degrees. It is expected to be less than 20 degrees on Monday night.
Is it a fluke? Or is it the way the Dolphins have been constructed? They are a quick strike offense and do not have the bruising running back and punishing defense that tends to be successful in the cold.
That type of team is on the other side.
But...the Dolphins now have a chance to shove the early-season mockery they endured back in the faces of their tormentors. That is particularly true for McDaniel and Tua.
The key is not to turn the ball over, which has been a bugaboo for Tua this season. He leads the league in interceptions with 14. Running back De'Von Achane has been otherworldly of late. He's dealing with injured ribs, but is on track to play.
#Dolphins RB De’Von Achane on the ground this season:
— Ryan Smith (@PFF_RyanSmith) December 9, 2025
- 90.7 PFF run grade (1st)
- 4.10 yards after contact per attempt (1st)
- 42 missed tackles forced (8th)
- 35 runs of 10+ yards (1st)
- 20 runs of 15+ yards (1st)#PhinsUp pic.twitter.com/2ZnLe3lBrB
They will need to put up the points to win in Pittsburgh.
ALSO SEE: Colts vs Seahawks Week 15 Odds & NFL Pick (Dec 14)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Jack Jones, CB | INJURED |
| Aaron Brewer, C | INJURED |
| De'Von Achane, RB | INJURED |
| Andrew Meyer, C | INJURED |
| Caleb Johnson, LB | INJURED |
| Elijah Campbell, S | INJURED |
| Rasul Douglas, CB | INJURED |
| Chop Robinson, LB | INJURED |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu, S | INJURED |
| Joe Cardona, LS | INJURED |
| Jason Sanders, PK | INJURED |
After consecutive losses to the Bears and Bills, the Steelers fell to 6-6, sparking chants of "Fire Tomlin" in reference to head coach Mike Tomlin. Borderline apostasy in Pittsburgh. The trip to Baltimore would likely have made or broken their season. And they escaped with a 27-22 win.
The final score is closer than the game actually was. Aaron Rodgers was 24 for 34 and 284 yards, tossing 1 TD pass and running for another.
Aaron Rodgers with a rushing TD and a discount double check celebration. What year is it?!? pic.twitter.com/45Tj2QQS8N
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 7, 2025
The defense largely mitigated Lamar Jackson, holding him to 219 yards passing with James Pierre picking him off. Derrick Henry ran for 94 yards, but was kept out of the end zone.
Pittsburgh has the upper hand in the division, but they must keep winning. The AFC North might come down to Week 18 when they host the Ravens.
The Steelers' primary advantages over the Dolphins are their ability to force turnovers (they're +9 in takeaway differential) and that they're accustomed to the cold weather. Apart from that, this is an even matchup on paper.
Star linebacker T.J. Watt suffered a collapsed lung and needed to be hospitalized. He's out.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| T.J. Watt, LB | INJURED |
| Keeanu Benton, DT | INJURED |
| Cameron Heyward, DT | INJURED |
| Ben Skowronek, WR | INJURED |
| Darnell Washington, TE | INJURED |
| Yahya Black, DE | INJURED |
| Calvin Austin III, WR | INJURED |
| Malik Harrison, LB | INJURED |
| Derrick Harmon, DT | INJURED |
| James Pierre, CB | INJURED |
| Calvin Anderson, OT | INJURED |
| Andrus Peat, G | INJURED |
| Donte Kent, CB | INJURED |
In Week 15 Dolphins-Steelers, both teams need this victory for their playoff hopes. The Ravens are playing the Bengals in Cincinnati, a game they could easily lose. Either way, the Steelers will know one way or the other at game time.
It's a different situation for the Dolphins. There are suddenly good vibes around them and people are rooting for them to complete this comeback. They'll need outside help even if they run the table, but that's a conversation for another day.
For Monday's game in Pittsburgh, underdog Miami will keep the score within 3 points.
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Pick
Miami Dolphins +3
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