Published Oct 21, 12:34pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Oct 21, 12:34pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Oct 21, 12:34pm ET
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| Atlanta Falcons | -7 (-110) |
| Miami Dolphins | +7 (-110) |
It's an understated accomplishment for the Dolphins to get progressively worse every week. Barring a miracle, head coach Mike McDaniel is the equivalent of a dead man walking in a professional sense. Once he's axed, he can go back to the safety and security of the Mike Shanahan tree. He'll always have a job in the NFL as an assistant with Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, et al.
He's better off as an assistant.
Week 7 was the latest example of what's wrong with the Dolphins.
Tua Tagovailoa is not "him." He's not the guy. Even if he goes to a better situation, he's a nominal starter on a bad team. One week after calling out teammates for failing to attend players' only meetings or not showing up at all, Tua completed 12 of 23 passes for 100 yards, no TDs, and 3 picks. He was pulled in favor of backup Quinn Evers
They surrendered 31 points to the Browns. Cleveland had not scored more than 17 points in a game this season.
Browns' QB Dillon Gabriel only threw 18 passes, completing 13. Running back Quinshon Judkins scored 3 TDs. Tua threw a pick-6 to Tyson Campbell.
Miami mustered no pass rush and could not stop the run. They're near the bottom of the league in nearly every team-centric category. The sole exception is defensive passing yards per game, where they are ranked 11th. That likely has more to do with them being so easy to run on than any fear opponents have of their secondary.
Tua is expected to start against Atlanta. McDaniel is expected to be on the sideline as head coach. What makes anyone think they'll have a chance of stopping Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier?
What are the Falcons?
Are they the team that beat three 2024 playoff teams, the Vikings, Commanders, and Bills?
Or are they the team that the Panthers shut out 30-0, and lost to the Bucs and 49ers?
Given the fight they put up in two of those losses, it's reasonable to chalk the beatdown in Carolina as a bad day. Still, they need to win these games, particularly the ones against teams they should beat, like the Dolphins.
In the 20-10 loss to San Francisco in Week 7, the 'Niners effectively shut down Robinson and Allgeier, holding them to 56 yards on the ground. Robinson added 52 yards on 6 receptions.
Thought one reason #49ers run defense was so good Sunday was because the DBs were all extremely physical and unafraid to get involved. Falcons RB Bijan Robinson entered with most rushing yards outside tackles in NFL. He had 34 yards on 12 such carries against SF.
— Nick Wagoner (@nwagoner) October 21, 2025
Here's Luter: pic.twitter.com/xiu5DMUeNk
Michael Penix played reasonably well, accruing 241 yards after completing 21 of 38 passes.
On defense, they could not stop Christian McCaffrey, who amassed 201 yards from scrimmage and scored 2 TDs, including the one that iced the game with 2:26 remaining.
If Atlanta wants to make the playoffs, they must-must-must beat teams like the Dolphins and do so convincingly. Atlanta should run the ball down the Dolphins' throats. They need to win the turnover battle, grab at least one interception from Tua, and rattle him so badly that he gets pulled in favor of Ewers.
The Falcons are 1st in the league in defensive passing yards per game. They're 20th against the run, so expect De'Von Achane to get plenty of work.
Penix has a bone bruise in his foot/ankle and is questionable.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Storm Duck, MIA | INJURED |
| Elijah Campbell, MIA | INJURED |
| Darren Waller, MIA | INJURED |
| Tyrone Wheatley, Jr., ATL | INJURED |
| Jalon Walker, ATL | INJURED |
| Billy Bowman, ATL | INJURED |
| Divine Deablo, ATL | INJURED |
| Michael Penix, ATL | INJURED |
For the Dolphins-Falcons NFL Week 8 matchup, one team is waiting for multiple shoes to drop, while the other is trying to take the next step into contention.
Miami's players know where this season is going, and it's unavoidable that players will start making business decisions for their future. A blowout at the Falcons' hands would presumably be the best thing that could happen to them, so they finally pull the plug on McDaniel and let Darrell Bevell finish the season as the interim head coach. They and McDaniel will feel better if they do.
The Falcons need to win this game convincingly, regardless of whether Penix can start or they need to go to backup Kirk Cousins. Expect them to run the ball from the start and dominate the game, covering the 7-point spread.
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Pick
Atlanta Falcons -7
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