Published Dec 23, 11:38am ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Dec 23, 11:38am ET
Grok AI
Updated Dec 23, 11:38am ET
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| Washington Commanders | +7 (-110) |
| Dallas Cowboys | -7 (-110) |
The Cowboys have missed the playoffs for the second straight season. As the campaign winds down, the question will at least be asked as to whether head coach Brian Schottenheimer is the long-term answer.
The team is undisciplined, fourth in the league in penalties. Their defense has been horrific. Part of that is due to injuries. But as owner Jerry Jones grows older, the window to win a Super Bowl is getting narrower and narrower. It's been three decades since the Cowboys last hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.
QB Dak Prescott has had one of the best years of his career with 28 TD passes against 10 picks, 4,175 passing yards, and a 100.0 passer rating. But it's gone for naught because of the defense and inconsistency.
#DallasCowboys Owner Jerry Jones on the teams Defensive issues: “We are not executing. We are not getting done what we even run as a scheme. That’s very critical. It’s a combination of many things when you can’t get pressure or stop the run.” pic.twitter.com/9ZbkOmqYDx
— The Cowboys Network (@TheCowboysNet) December 23, 2025
Week 16's loss to the Chargers encapsulated the Cowboys' season. They were competitive for the first three quarters, but LA pulled away late to win 34-17. The defense could not contain Justin Herbert, who completed 23 of 29 passes for 300 yards and 2 TDs. He had a 132.8 passer rating.
Dallas could not run the ball with feature back Javonte Williams limited to 34 yards.
The Cowboys are heavily favored as they visit the Commanders. This is largely because Washington's defense is as bad as Dallas' and Prescott can still accumulate yards and points. In the earlier matchup, he was 21 for 30 with 264 yards and 3 TD passes. Williams ran for 116 yards. CeeDee Lamb caught 5 passes for 119 yards and a TD.
Williams has a neck issue and was limited in practice.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Quinnen Williams, DT | INJURED |
| Tyler Guyton, OT | INJURED |
| Caelen Carson, CB | INJURED |
| Donovan Wilson, S | INJURED |
| Phil Mafah, RB | INJURED |
| DeMarvion Overshown, LB | INJURED |
| Ryan Flournoy, WR | INJURED |
| KaVontae Turpin, WR | INJURED |
| Tyler Booker, G | INJURED |
| Javonte Williams, RB | INJURED |
After the Commanders' 2024 run to the NFC Championship Game where they were blown out by the Eagles, they hoped to contend for the Super Bowl in 2025.
Injuries to QB Jayden Daniels and other key players doomed them. Now, they sit at 4-11 with Daniels shut down.
Similar to how the Cowboys' loss to the Chargers was a neat summary of Dallas' season, the Commanders' loss to the Eagles did the same for Washington.
The score was pedestrian, 29-18, particularly since the Eagles have won the NFC East and are hoping to repeat as Super Bowl champs, while the Commanders are trying to get a hellish season over with.
But...the game suddenly became interesting with Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni going for a 2-point conversion with Philly leading 27-10, converting, and setting off a brawl.
Six flags were thrown, and three players were ejected during this fight on the Eagles’ 2-point conversion.
— Preme Football (@premefootball) December 21, 2025
The Commanders definitely seemed heated about the Eagles going for two with a 19-point lead late in the 4th. pic.twitter.com/xrw2b9JbC5
Washington head coach Dan Quinn issued a vague threat(?), "If that's how they want to get down, all good. We play them again in two weeks."
With the Eagles' playoff position likely cemented, none of their stars are going to play. So what Quinn is planning, if anything, is a mystery, nor will the Eagles care.
As for the game against Dallas, the Commanders' pass defense, ranked 26th in yards allowed per game, and their rush defense, ranked 29th, suggest they will not be able to stop the Cowboys.
Backup QB Marcus Mariota has had a respectable season with 10 TD passes against 7 picks and an 86.1 passer rating. He, running backs Chris Rodriguez and Jacory Croskey-Merritt, and receivers Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel, should put up yards and score against the Cowboys' porous defense.
Mariota has been dealing with hand and quad injuries.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Laremy Tunsil, OT | INJURED |
| Eddie Goldman, DT | INJURED |
| Nick Bellore, LB | INJURED |
| Sam Cosmi, G | INJURED |
| Jaylin Lane, WR | INJURED |
| Bobby Wagner, LB | INJURED |
| Daron Payne, DT | INJURED |
| Marcus Mariota, QB | INJURED |
| Jayden Daniels, QB | INJURED |
In the Netflix Christmas Cowboys-Commanders battle between also-rans, Dallas is trying to finish the season at .500 while Washington is hoping to get the season over with in a respectable manner.
The Commanders are injury-ravaged and beaten down. Dallas will have no problem scoring against Washington, but with Dallas' defense about as bad as Washington's, the game should be closer than a touchdown with the home underdog covering the spread.
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Pick
Washington Commanders +7
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