Published Nov 11, 11:56am ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Nov 11, 11:56am ET
Grok AI
Updated Nov 11, 11:56am ET
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| Miami Dolphins | -3 (-111) |
| Washington Commanders | +3 (-109) |
Following their surprising run to the NFC Championship Game in 2024, the Commanders were hoping to take the next step and possibly reach the Super Bowl in 2025. After a 2-1 start, injuries began to mount.
Star QB Jayden Daniels has been battered with knee and hamstring woes before suffering his season-ending dislocated elbow. Running back Austin Ekeler tore his Achilles. Wide receiver Terry McLaurin has a quad injury. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore tore his ACL.
After the 44-22 loss to the Lions in Week 10, head coach Dan Quinn took defensive play-calling duties away from coordinator Joe Whitt.
The veteran QB Marcus Mariota has played well in place of Daniels, but the injuries to key players McLaurin and Ekeler, along with the defensive woes, have left the Commanders in disarray. Their season is over.
Marcus Mariota : 16/22 for 213 yards, 2 TD's & a season-high 133.3 QB Rating pic.twitter.com/DIscmUUuEE
— Lee Harvey (@Sayian_Warrior) November 10, 2025
They are 22nd in the NFL in points allowed per game and 29th in points scored per game. Their takeaway differential is near the bottom at -6. The only area in which they have been effective is in rushing yards per game, ranked 6th in the league. But much of that is due to Daniels and Mariota's effectiveness at running.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels, QB | INJURED |
| Terry McLaurin, WR | INJURED |
| Marshon Lattimore, CB | INJURED |
| Ale Kaho, LB | INJURED |
| Treylon Burks, WR | INJURED |
| Trey Amos, CB | INJURED |
| Austin Ekeler, RB | INJURED |
| Chris Rodriguez, RB | INJURED |
| Jonathan Jones, CB | INJURED |
| Luke McCaffrey, WR | INJURED |
Miami's season has gone nearly as badly as Washington's. After their Week 9, Thursday night 28-6 loss to the Ravens, general manager Chris Grier was fired. Champ Kelly replaced him on an interim basis. Embattled head coach Mike McDaniel will remain in place for the rest of the season.
While the overwhelming likelihood is that they will find a permanent GM and let that person pick the head coach, Miami has not quit on McDaniel. In Week 10, they blew out the would-be Super Bowl-contending Bills, 30-13.
Tua Tagovailoa threw 2 TDs and 2 picks. But Miami jumped out to a 16-0 lead. Their defense held Bills running back James Cook to 53 yards on 13 carries and harried QB Josh Allen.
De'Von Achane ran for 174 yards and caught 6 passes for 51 yards.
De’Von Achane with a career day in Dolphins upset of Bills: 225 scrimmage yards & 2 TDs:
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) November 9, 2025
Achane now has 32 TDs in his 38 career NFL games. One of NFL’s best young dual-threat playmakers. Eligible for 💰 contract extension this offseason: pic.twitter.com/und5GstFwM
Short of a miraculous run to the playoffs, McDaniel's fate is sealed, but it's certainly a positive that the team is still playing for him and shunning "business decisions."
Whoever takes over football ops walks in with a keeper in running back Achane. In 10 games, he's accrued 780 yards on the ground and 325 yards through the air. They retained defensive star Bradley Chubb at the trade deadline, and Jordyn Brooks leads the team in tackles.
Miami's struggles mirror Washington's. The only area in which they have been passable is in defensive passing yards per game, ranked 13th.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Chop Robinson, LB | INJURED |
| Julian Hill, TE | INJURED |
| Dee Eskridge, WR | INJURED |
| Rasul Douglas, CB | INJURED |
| Ashtyn Davis, S | INJURED |
In the Week 11 Commanders-Dolphins matchup, both teams are looking toward the future. Injuries have undone the Commanders and ruined their hopes. The Dolphins' downfall has been coming for a while.
As the teams take to the field in Spain, the question is which one will be better prepared amid the disappointment. Miami still has something to prove. That is particularly true for Tua, from whom Miami's incoming GM could choose to move on.
Miami will cover the 3-point spread and beat Washington, winning the war of attrition between two injured and floundering franchises.
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Pick
Miami Dolphins -3
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