Colts vs Rams NFL Pick: Indy Gets a Big Test After a 3-0 Start (Sep 28)

• For NFL Week 4, Colts-Rams is one of the marquee matchups with undefeated Indy looking to prove they’re for real and LA trying to rebound from a terrible loss
• Indianapolis blew out the Titans for its 3rd straight win on another big game from QB Daniel Jones and running back Jonathan Taylor
• LA was a field goal away from upsetting the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles before a block and TD return broke their hearts
• LA is favored by 3.5 points
• The teams have not met since 2023, when the Rams won 29-23

A Litmus Test for the Colts

After three weeks, the Colts are one of the feel-good stories in the NFL on myriad levels.

They are starting a former 1st round draft pick at QB, Daniel Jones, who was run out of New York after an injury-plagued and chaotic tenure. (They’re still in chaos, for the record.)

Owner Jim Irsay died, and his daughters are now running the team.

Their former 1st round draft pick, QB Anthony Richardson, was benched in favor of Jones and is currently a bust.

This season is crucial for GM Chris Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen to keep their jobs.

That they are 3-0 even with bad-to-mediocre competition in the Dolphins, Broncos, and Titans is an unexpected and positive storyline.

Now they’re facing a legitimate Super Bowl contender on the road.

If they’re to be believed, the 41-20 beating they inflicted on the Titans is a testimony as to how they’re winning.

Jones was 18 for 25 for 228 yards and a TD pass. Taylor rushed for 102 yards on 17 carries and 3 TDs. Kenny Moore opened the scoring less than a minute into the game with a 32-yard pick-6 on Cam Ward.

On defense, they held Titans’ back Tony Pollard to 45 yards on 16 carries and sacked Ward 4 times, two by Tyquan Lewis.

They are in the top 9 in every single key category on offense and defense. Critically, they are +5, first in the NFL, in takeaway differential. They run the ball, they control the clock, they are playing tremendous defensively, and they have some magic about them.

If the Colts beat the Rams, they will be seen as a serious, darkhorse threat in the AFC.

LA Blew It Against the Eagles

Almost all the attention paid to the Rams’ 33-26 loss to the Eagles in Philadelphia centered on Joshua Karty’s last-second field goal attempt being blocked by Jordan Davis, who ran the ball back 61 yards for a TD.

A made field goal wins the game, obviously. However, it’s being obscured that LA built a 26-7 lead one minute into the second half. Their defense let the Eagles score 20 unanswered points to take a one-point lead with less than two minutes remaining. The game should not have come down to a Karty field goal.

QB Matthew Stafford was very good, completing 19 of 33 passes for 196 yards. Running back Kyren Williams accrued 94 yards on 20 carries. Blake Corum ran for 53 on 8 carries. Puka Nacua caught 11 balls for 112 yards.

On defense, they held Saquon Barkley to 46 yards on 18 carries and 4 yards on 5 catches. The Eagles were throwing in the second half to try to get back in the game, and the Rams couldn’t stop them. A.J. Brown caught 6 balls for 109 yards. DeVonta Smith had 8 catches for 60 yards. Both caught a TD pass, as did tight end Dallas Goedert.

If the head-to-head matchup with the Eagles turns out to be important at season’s end, the Rams will see this game as having been the one that got away.

LA has been generally solid in all aspects thus far, but this game is an understated test for them. They beat two uninspiring teams in the Texans and Titans, and lost to the Eagles. After the Colts, they play the 49ers and Ravens. They need this game.

Colts vs Rams Pick

In Week 4 Colts-Rams, this is a key game for both teams, but more so for LA. The Colts bandwagon will lose some passengers if they have a poor showing, but a strong showing, even in a loss, will keep the excitement and allure going. If they win, there will be people grabbing hold and hanging on for dear life to go for the ride.

LA needs to make up for that blown opportunity against Philly, particularly with their tough schedule in the next two weeks.

These are good teams. Both have a solid nucleus to go far. The Colts need to corral Nacua. The Rams must stop Taylor and pressure Jones, daring him to beat them.

In the end, the underdog Colts will keep the game within 3.5 points.